Betting Syndicates, we’re all in ... - Horse Racing Tips

1000-member betting syndicate mulls placing NZ's biggest ever bet on a single horse race

1000-member betting syndicate mulls placing NZ's biggest ever bet on a single horse race submitted by BETmarket to Betmarket [link] [comments]

A betting syndicate hires a biologist, a statistician and a physicist to help them predict the outcome of horse races...

They research for a year and then each of them reports back to the syndicate.
The biologist tells them that he can breed them the perfect horse,that will win any race, but it'll cost 10 billion and take twenty years. They thank him, but tell him that's too much and turn to the statistician.
The statistician tells them that he can write a formula to predict the outcome of every race, but he'll need a computer that'll cost 100 million and it'll only be right 49% of the time. They tell him that's worse than a coin flip and turn to the physicist.
Now the physicist is beaming from ear to ear and proudly announces that he can win them every singe race no problem. Excited the syndicate begs him to tell them more, so he walks to a whiteboard and begins to sketch out his proposal.
"Now, to start with, we made a number of simplifying assumptions, beginning with presuming that each horse is a perfect sphere..."
submitted by fringly to Jokes [link] [comments]

[Long Pitch] AC: Knighthood - Help the Templar Order rise in the shadows after officially dissolving in 1312: Find protection against the Black Death, gather influence in the Hundred Years´ War and retrieve Jacques De Molay´s Codex.

[Long Pitch] AC: Knighthood - Help the Templar Order rise in the shadows after officially dissolving in 1312: Find protection against the Black Death, gather influence in the Hundred Years´ War and retrieve Jacques De Molay´s Codex.

Mock-Up for AC:Knighthood
Hello, everyone! This is my pitch on the game after Valhalla. There is both gameplay and narrative thoughts below, so feel free to pick and choose what you are most interested in. I would also suggest looking into the images to help visualizing some of the ideas.

Anyway, since I really want the franchise to stay a bit longer in the Middle Ages before moving on to other settings, I think it would be great to see an expansion of Unity´s prologue, where we saw the Templars being hunted down until the end of their public organization. They did eventually rise and became even more powerful as the time went on, but how?

That seems like a great setup to learn even more about the faction like never before and to show more of the European cities during the medieval time period.The following might not be too deep or get certain things right (both in lore and history), but I wanted to get out of my head some thoughts that have been on it for some time and see what you all think about the base concept.

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0.The Gameplay Trinity

Freerunning, Stealth and Combat.
All of the above is what makes the gameplay of AC what it is. The games usually have a problem in making all 3 of them great. While what I will say may not please everyone and is not the perfect solution, this is what I have in mind for each one in Knighthood:
-Combat: This will be straightfoward, I really enjoy what they are doing in Vahalla and think it should stay that way in Knighthood. Dual wielding, melee/ranged hybrid, stamina meter for adversaries, multiple enemy types with their own attacks/weapons, skills with no adrenaline cost...all of those seems to really make for a fun system. I would only really add more variety on the finishers and also a new combat move with the hidden blade (depending on the enemy´s health, you could trigger a counter-kill with the blade, more on that below).
-Stealth: Alongside the Social Stealth returning with Disguises and Enforcers (more on that below), I do think the traditional stealth could remain with the base right now but with a few returning elements from Unity in particular. Fast (and chainable) assassinations + distraction/lethal tools were important elements to make the stealth flow in Unity quite smooth and nice to look at (when it all worked, of course).
We can still work that around with the Abilities Wheel that we have now, since it can hold different skills equipped in one go: this time around, the Ranged Wheel would let you press the D-Pad down to switch to a "Throwables Wheel", where the character is always aiming a bomb on a curve (like Revelations/Unity/Syndicate/Rogue) and you then choose with the face buttons what he will throw.
So, basically: The player can switch between the Bow and Throwable Wheels -> In the new wheel, you aim in a curve -> Choose between 4 throwables just like the Skills (it saves your last used one) -> Throw it by using the same button you use to shoot arrows. This sort of system is inspired by Ghost of Tsushima, who let players do this type of switching.
-Freerunning: Let´s have 2 modes, just like what we have for exploration. We would have Manual (it would work in the same template of AC1-Revelations) and Automatic (which is what we have now). This should be a thing since the recent game do not want to give full control for the risk of players making mistakes or killing themselves, which was a common thing before. In this approach, we can give the choice for those that do want to get good at it and own those mistakes for themselves.
Enviromental Puzzles could then work like this: while Automatic mode would have the prompts appear on screen and work only at that instance (like a QTE version of backwards/side jumps), Manual mode would just leave players figure out on their how to solve it.
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1.Time Period and Locations

Medieval Marketplace concept art for AC:Unity by Gilles Beloeil
The main game would be set during the period where the Black Death (1347 - 1351) and the 100 Years War (1337 -1453) overlap each other, since it could have the most potential for a chaotic scenario. The game could still happen before and after that frame though.

I imagine we could have one main map, its own take on France, which would be a mix of towns, cities and countryside. Paris, Rouen and Orleans would be the major locations involved. Unity did seem to have more planned for its Medieval rift, so having that finally coming back and expanded would be quite the sight, since Paris at the time would have over 200.000 habitants and had a few of its iconic landmarks already made (like Notre-Dame).

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2.Prologue & Intro

A familiar location, but from another point of view.
I will give you a TL:DR here so you do not have to read my fanfiction:
-[1307] Play as the male child of Jacques De Molay´s Advisor during Unity´s Prologue;
-Before escaping from Paris with an ally, he hears the last words of his father about the hidden Sword of Eden and Jacques de Molay´s codex inside the Temple.
-[1327] Time skip shows that the son became Grand Master of the French rite of the Templar Order. His wife gives birth to the main protagonist;
-[1347] The main protagonist grows to become a scribe that trains in secret and dreams about becoming Knight. They are also unaware of the Assassins/Templars conflict, since their father is concerned about turning them into a target;
-The protagonist eavesdrop on a conversation about Assassins recovering the Sword of Eden and the Codex. They also hear about an ambush that their father will make and decides to help to prove his worth;
-At the ambush, the protagonist saves his father from the Assassins and fights one that has the Sword of Eden;
-They retrieve the Piece of Eden and the protagonist gets a reward for his bravery and skills: he finally becomes a Knight, despite lacking the usual requirements, and is also introduced to the Templars.
Now, for the fanfiction (or you can skip ahead):

We start playing as a child boy during the Assassin assault on Jacques de Molay in Paris (1307), the event we saw during Unity´s prologue. Their father would be Jacque´s Advisor, the one who we played as during that pivotal moment.You end up finding your father after he gets stabbed by the Assassin Thomas de Carneillon. As soon as you touch the corpse, we get into a “memory corridor” with your father, where he explains about how he has hidden the Codex Pater Intellectus and the Sword of Eden inside the Temple. He then tells you to run away and find a friend of his on Paris, which could take him to safety and raise him.

Before dying for good, he gives away his Templar necklace, which is a family´s heirloom.Thomas reappear from the Temple empty-handed, but sees you, who runs away. The gameplay in here would be the tutorial for free-running and stealth mainly, with the objective to get out of the Temple and find the father´s friend. After using the environment to create distractions and climbing through the rooftops, you find the ally´s house, who lets you in after showing the necklace.Together, both of you would use Social Stealth to reach a carriage outside of the city, which is being patrolled by Assassins.

After that is done, we get a video montage of quick scenes that would show the boy growing up along the years (with a new remix of Ezio´s family in the background, of course). One of the final scenes is 20 years after the intro and the child, now a man on his 30s, is being promoted to Grand Master of the French rite of the Templar Order. Right after that, he is told that his wife is about to give birth. After rushing to see her, we get to witness the birth of our main protagonist.

End of Prologue;

The main game then cuts to 20 years later, on 1347. You live now on a sizeable plot of land that is owned by your father, who received it from a Lord for his actions as Knight and Templar Grand Master. The settlement has been your home for decades and will be location you shall upgrade and return to from time to time.

There is a big tournament happening nearby, with a lot of cheering and colorful flags all around. The protagonist is fighting on it and is introduced to the combat tutorial. After winning against the final opponent, a big dragon appears and shoots a blaze of fire at our hero who is….dreaming all along.

This is when it is revealed that our protagonist is just a scribe, but has this passionate dream of reliving the tales of the many heroes that he grew up with. With that in mind, they did train themselves in secret for years with the help of one of their father´s friend, who was a seasoned Knight himself. Their chance would finally come when a courier would appear and deliver a haunting information for their father: the Assassins found the Sword of Eden alongside Jacques de Molay´s Codex and both would be transported out of Paris.The protagonist overheard the information above and decides to know more.

They manage to listen to the father talking about creating an ambush himself to collects those relics. That is when the hero decide to help without him knowing. We cut to the ambush on a forest and a big fight ensues between Assassins and Templars, which is when the protagonist jumps in and help their father side by side. This is when one of the assassins use the Sword of Eden to shoot lighting at the people around him and the Scribe finally see what sort of thing their father was trying to protect them from. While the sword´s needed to recharge, the protagonist rushes to the assassin and a 1-on-1 fight happens.

After managing to kill the Assassin and claim the Sword for themselves, the Grand Master is angry and proud of our protagonist´s actions. The Codex is nowhere to be seen, but you all return home safely with the relic. On there, preparations get made and, despite not having the usual requirements, the protagonist becomes a Knight and an official member of the Templar Order.

In regards to the rest of the narrative, the main character would see along the way that life was not like the tales that they grew up with, but they would still try to make the most out of it. Another conflict that would appear would be in the moments where helping the Templar´s cause would clash with their ideals. How far they would go for their family? Does the end justify the means?
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3.Social Stealth & Disguises

Processing img 6nlur6ktbhe51...
Valhalla seems to add Social Stealth back, which is to be used in specific locations (colored in orange on the compass and called "Distrust Areas"), where Eivor put on their hood/cape and walk among enemies while avoiding their sight and blending with other people.

That should also be a thing in Knighthood, since the Assassins have the upper hand and have the control of most areas. In that case, being able to hide in plain sight from them writes by itself. The “stalkers” mechanic from Rogue could return in a way, but they would only attack you if you act suspicious near them (climbing, running, etc). To help spotting them, the Eagle Vision (or Pulse, as seen in Valhalla) will have a bigger range when you are blending. Look out for the rooftops, benches and haystacks, since the Assassins are on their hunting ground while you are their prey.

Disguises should also be a thing as an alternative to walk around these dangerous locations in a more free way. In that case, using a local Assassin or Guard attire could fool some initiates while Veterans would be able to see through it (it is basically what the Hitman franchise does with their disguises and Enforcers). In a different manner, acquiring the armor should not be as easy as just getting someone with it, so I propose earning it in different ways, like from a quest or paying a tailoblacksmith for it.For a balanced way to switch between loadouts, these “social” areas would require you to get into a hidden spot to change gear, like the fabled closets.

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4.Counter-Assassin Missions

Processing img 9ypgov2mbhe51...
Expanding on another of Rogue´s idea, these would be the missions dedicated to foil the Assassin´s plans along the region. The key thing is to have variety on the types of missions, like one where you have to locate the disguised Assassin during a party, or another where you have to investigate a series of murders and guess which is the next target, or even one where you go around burning haystacks and other hiding spots.

Doing all of them on a region/district would unlock a final quest to eliminate the Master Assassin of that area. They all should have their unique setups like the assassination contracts from II/Brotherhood/Black Flag and, when completed, will free that location of members from Brotherhood.

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5.A (Templar) Knight´s Tale

Processing img 5hp3cymebhe51...
After we had pirates, mercenaries and vikings, the new public role of the protagonist would be of a Knight, which had quite a bit of prestige in the Middle Ages and could offer some unique activities for the role, like: jousting, fighting tournaments, duels, poetry, and falconry.

The horse customization would sure be much bigger, since they were quite an important companion to these warriors, so being able to equip them with armor and saddle bags would be ideal. Adding to that, having different horses with their own attributes could help making them stand out from each other and give the player a choice on what they prefer (speed, health, stamina, etc).

Either way, any horse will also increase its stats along the way if they are cared well, so players are motivated to feed them and not jump from high mountains with them. Also, combat on horseback would get more time to shine too (they should also bring back the horse-to-horse assassinations).You would use your role as a Knight to help the common folk (fulfilling the protagonist´s initial dream of heroic feats**)** and to grant the wishes of powerful Lords and Kings (to get their support for the Templar Order);

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6.The Map of Operations

Processing img 8k9panj4bhe51...
Inspired by Dragon Age Inquisition and similar activities in past AC games, the Table would have the map of the main locations and will work sort of like the City Upgrades of Syndicate. You could access it on your homebase and in other lairs around the maps. The feature´s objective would be to make changes in the overworld and to give a bigger presence to the war that was going on (which is what Rogue also did for the 7 Years War with Shay´s fleet and some of its open-world activities).

While useful to create off-screen battles, it would also be a place for open-world advantages, like giving food supplies to a Lord, who will then put guards on rooftops of the local town, which will make Assassins unable to use them there. Another example would be where you blackmail a Church priest and make the monks share all the useful information that they have heard from the civilians (as seen in the mock-up above).

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7.The Hidden Blade´s Customization

Mock-up of the Hidden Blade´s customization screen.
Yes, even as a Templar, you shall have a Hidden Blade. Since we saw Templars like Haytham use them before, this should not be an issue. Either way, what I want out of it is a bigger level of customization than ever before, both in appearance and perks.
As seen above, the HB will have 3 main stats: stealth efficiency (which is the speed of the assassination and the type of enemy it can kill), sound supressor (the range of the noise that the stab/launcher makes) and combat lethality (how much health does an enemy must have left in combat before you can one-hit him).
Alongside that, it has a space for a tool (like a wristbow, a hookblade or bomb-launcher) and ammo, if you have the compatible tool equipped (poison/normal/sleep bolts for the wristbow and poison/smoke/cherry bombs for the launcher).
To upgrade it, you will need to spend valuable resources, so you gotta focus on what you would prefer to have at first. Eventually, you shall have the perfect blade. In regards to the tools, they could either be unlocked at the skill tree or tied to story progression.

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8.The Black Death and the Ankh

The Ankh as seen on the AC comics.
I think it is safe to assume that there would be an extra explanation given to the source of this powerful pandemic. In my mind, the Assassins and Templars would not be involved in its creation or spread. Instead, an Isu Vault would have been found by explorers/bandits and the disease would then be free.
Created to destroy humanity during the Isu-Human war, the project was not finished in time, but the automated operation managed to finish it after the demise of its creators. In that case, both factions would have to face this ancient treat while fighting each other.Not only the disease would create quite the chaotic scenario, it would also prove to be a good narrative device to give the Templars an opportunity to rise again.
Part of that journey would also involve the search of the Ankh, a PoE with some powerful abilities, as seen in the wiki: “It was said to have the capability of healing the sick, and temporarily resurrecting the dead. It would also act as a recording device, storing the mannerisms of a living person and being able to return those mannerisms to a corpse”.
Canon or not, an old facebook app had also this lore piece: “The Brothers of the Cross were a secret Templar organization traveling across Germany promising protection from the plague in the mid-14th century. The Assassin Lukas Zurburg suspected that they were after the Ankh, a Piece of Eden said to be located somewhere in Central Europe. In 1350, the Brothers of the Cross vanished mysteriously, and Lukas and the Ankh were never seen again.”
Source: https://assassinscreed.fandom.com/wiki/Brothers_of_the_CrossRight now, the Modern Day Templars think that the Ankh is a myth created by the Assassins, but I think the memories of our protagonist could show the real truth behind it. And since we are on that subject...
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9.The Modern Day
Mock-up of the Modern Crew on a historic location.
Modern Day seems to be in a paradox, it cannot get enough resources to make it stand out at the same time it has a reduced spotlight to please those that do not like it. With that in mind, I guess a good middle point would be the AC: Brotherhood approach.
We sort of had a glimpse of it in Origins/Odyssey: using the same place as seen in the historic period. In this case, the crew would be back at the main base of the historic protagonist, just like in Brotherhood. The castle would be a blend of old/new and you would be able to unlock secret areas along the way (with enviromental puzzles and combat/stealth scenarios induced by the Bleeding Effect).

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10.Conclusion
Thanks for reading so far. These are just a few things that came to mind these days when thinking about what game is going to happen after Valhalla. While betting on a Templar protagonist is risky, it was fun to think about the possibility.If you want an even deeper explanation on the potential of the setting itself, the “AC: Plague” concept by u/nstav13 is a great read and served as inspiration for the ideas above: https://www.reddit.com/assassinscreed/comments/e7ro6w/the_eventuality_of_assassins_creed_plague/
submitted by BrunoHM to assassinscreed [link] [comments]

Looking for statistical horse racing community

Hello! I am interested in a statistical approach to horse racing (specifically I follow the Hong Kong races) Is this the space to talk about it or is there a specific community?
The truth is, I'm pretty new to Reddit so any advice is welcome!
submitted by TheJavoClown to horseracing [link] [comments]

The Kentucky Derby is Today! MAC's Derby Breakdown, Picks & Betting Report

The Kentucky Derby is Today! MAC's Derby Breakdown, Picks & Betting Report
https://preview.redd.it/vrnkixdsfcl51.png?width=765&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5f0a5c08dbe725e40d8b0044e8fa0020aa932a6

The Kentucky Derby is Today! MAC's Derby Breakdown, Picks & Betting Report

Kentucky Derby Odds | Current Kentucky Derby Odds + MAC’s Picks

The second leg of the Triple Crown is here!

The 146th Kentucky Derby is taking place Saturday, September 5th at Churchill Downs and below is a variety of betting options for you to choose from.

The First Rule Of Kentucky Derby Betting

ALWAYS, place your bets as close to the start of the race as possible. It’s a great idea to get your picks in order before the race begins, however, you should try and place them as close to the start as you can. This week, it was reported that Omaha Beach was recently pulled from the Kentucky Derby, due to an entrapped epiglottis. While the announcement gave bettors ample time to change their lines, imagine what would happen if wagers were already placed. MyBookie will be posting Kentucky Derby content all Saturday long, allowing you to make confident bets with the latest news and odds.

2020 KENTUCKY DERBY - ODDS TO WIN

MAX PLAYER +2000
ENFORCEABLE +4000
STORM THE COURT +4000 - (MAC’s Long shot, Storm The Court is a chance move, exacata and trifecta pick)
MAJOR FED +5000
MONEY MOVES +3000
SOUTH BEND +6000
MR BIG NEWS +6000
THOUSAND WORDS +1400
NECKER ISLAND +6000
SOLE VOLANTE +3000
ATTACHMENT RATE +4000
WINNING IMPRESSION +6000
NY TRAFFIC +1400 - (MAC’s #2 Pick - MAC’s moving on NY Traffic with top rated information from his consensus affiliates on location)
HONOR A.P. +600
TIZ THE LAW -150 - (MAC’s #1 Pick - Always play the favorite in the Derby!)
AUTHENTIC +800

KENTUCKY DERBY MATCHUPS

Honor A.P. -155
Authentic +125

KENTUCKY DERBY MATCHUPS

Thousand Words -110
Ny Traffic -125

KENTUCKY DERBY MATCHUPS

South Bend -155
Winning Impression +125

WHAT WILL THE FIRST QUARTER MILE BE?

OVER 22.8 SECONDS -120
UNDER 22.8 SECONDS -110

TIME OF THE FIRST HALF MILE BE?

OVER 46.8 SECONDS -110
UNDER 46.8 SECONDS -120

WILL THE KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER LEAD WIRE TO WIRE?

YES +450
NO -800

THE OPENING QUARTER WILL BE RUN IN

LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 23 SECONDS +100
GREATER THAN 23 SECONDS -140 - (MAC’s Corona Cause and Affect Pick - Covid has been cutting in training time for all sports, expect the pace to be a bit slower than recent years)

WILL THE WINNING TRAINER BE A FIRST TIME WINNER

YES - FIRST TIME KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER +225
NO - FIRST TIME KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER -350

# OF WORDS IN THE NAME OF THE DERBY WINNER

1 WORD +700
2 WORDS +600
3 WORDS -190

THE LAST PLACE HORSE SADDLECLOTH NUMBER WILL BE

ODD -180
EVEN +140 - (MAC’s Insiders have informed him of this Hush Money action, behind the scenes action coming in from our West Coast Betting Syndicate has came across MAC’s desk)

AGE OF THE DERBY WINNING TRAINER

OVER 51.5 YEARS -1500
UNDER 51.5 YEARS +750

AGE OF THE DERBY WINNING JOCKEY

OVER 40.5 YEARS +300
UNDER 40.5 YEARS -500

WHO WILL THE WINNING JOCKEY THANK FIRST

OWNER - IN HORSEBACK INTERVIEW +300
TRAINER - IN HORSEBACK INTERVIEW +300
HORSE - IN HORSEBACK INTERVIEW +300
FAMILY - IN HORSEBACK INTERVIEW +300
GOD - IN HORSEBACK INTERVIEW +300
OTHER - IN HORSEBACK INTERVIEW +600

THE WINNING TRAINER CRY IN POST-RACE INTERVIEW

YES +350
NO -700

WILL AN NBC HOST WIN THEIR TRIFECTA BET

YES +450
NO -900

WILL THE DERBY WINNER BE WEARING BLINKERS

YES +600
NO -1000
submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

My New Role Ideas

I had some ideas for new roles I think would be cool for Rockstar to add to the game. (If they ever fix it)
Conducter Role:
For this role I was thinking Rockstar could branch out and really utilize their other forms of transportation. Cause we all get bored of riding horses, right? Basically I think it would be cool if you could run your own train business, maybe allowing npc passengers onto it and make money that way, maybe you could have a base in your train that functions like your moonshine shack. Think, Assassin's Creed Syndicate. You could upgrade your train, or use it to deliver trader items maybe? Maybe you have to maintain your train like you have to maintain your guns.
Outlaw Role:
This one might seem too general seeing as, well everyone in this game carries guns, we all do illegal stuff in the game world. But what I mean by an "Outlaw Role" is a role where you basically get to do heists, preform elaborate robberies, and form more of a "gang" than a posse, a lot like in the campaign actually. I also think this could tie into the Conducter Role I mentioned earlier, so there could be train heists and robberies like in the Story Mode. You could choose to keep the passengers alive, maybe it doesn't even have to be money you're stealing. Could be new moonshine recipes, materials for your Trader business, the list goes on.
Fisherman Role:
Again, this role goes into how I wish Rockstar would utilize their modes of transportation. I think it'd be interesting if they added legendary fish and possibly legendary bait that corresponds with the fish. You could buy boats, starting maybe from a dinky rowboat, and slowly upgrading to a bigger and better boat. Like imagine if you got to pilot one of those massive ships you see near the docks of Saint Denis. Again, you could also use cargo boats to deliver Trader goods. Imagine sailing your goods in a boat, carrying them to a train, and dropping them off on the other side of the map. That would feel like so much more of an adventure I think, and it would feel more immersive, as it's more practical than riding a horse across a few states. I also think you could utilize legendary fish skin maybe, like at the Trapper what if you could use the fish skins to make fisherman style garbs, or wrap them around the handle of your fishing rod which you could also improve.
Boxer Role:
Personally I absolutely love to box in online with ky friends. The fist to fist combat system is surprisingly good for a game where you're encouraged to just shoot everything. I was thinking it'd be cool if we could have underground fighting rings where you can either box someone in your own posse or your posse could rival another in a kind of tournament. You could bet money on who you think is going to win, and it could, again, be a lot like the moonshine shack where it's an underground business where you could customize the area. Like you could include a bar, set your own theme, change how the boxing ring looks, ect. I think it could work as a business in that maybe you could win money/gold bars for winning tournaments with other posses, or you could let it generate money on its own, after possibly collecting materials or spreading awareness about your boxing ring discreetly, and let npcs box and raise money for you. It might even be interesting to be able to "flourish" while boxing like you can while playing an instrument in a moonshine shack, where you have to keep your guests entertained while boxing to earn more money.
submitted by Papa_Boyardee to RedDeadOnline [link] [comments]

With everyone stuck inside - what are your favorite long-form horse-racing articles, books and other media pieces? - Also a question about Bill Benter and how he cracked the horse-racing code...

So I'm just now slowly getting back into horse racing after a few years away. With no other sports on I must say it's pretty exciting to get back into the swing of things and slowly but surely work on my handicapping capabilities... the races are a pretty fun and a great way to get your mind off the current state of affairs!
Last night I went down the Bill Benter rabbit hole with this article: The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code! and I'm sure most of the seasoned enthusiasts are well aware of this piece. That then led me to another good article about Bill and other syndicates working on similar models in this article: The High Tech Trifecta - my questions are...
The rabbit hole then led me to this video: How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling which was far more interesting that I had anticipated and I think any fan of the sport would get tons of entertainment value from it.
I'd love it if you guys would be willing to share some of your favorite media pieces and whatnot. Whether it's books about becoming a better handicapper, Youtube videos (like this one which is more light hearted and someone posted earlier in the week), long-form articles, best instagrams and twitters to follow, etc etc... just give me some things to consume and read. I think we could all benefit from a quick "library" of interesting HR topics! Thanks in advance.
submitted by Jayvis to horseracing [link] [comments]

Youtja vs. Klingons! Ferengi and Humans hedge thier bets?

Since Dark Horse shares it's universe with Valiant, D.C., and Marvel Studios, (and by association, Pixar, Disney, Lucas Studios, Star Trek, Malibu, and for all we know, the Pope and the Roman Catholic Church) will the Warren Corporation buy out the Orion Syndicate and add Jem'Hadar survivors too thier bio-weopons program, pending Ripley's continued interference in obtaining Zenomorph's for that intended purpose? With Romulus and Cronos in a state of perpetual civil war, with no interest in engaging the Federation or the Ferengi Alliance in pointless skirmishes since Niether will fight fare or acknowledge antiquated social conventions of honor and glory when there is too much profit and reverse engineered tech. to be obtained. Given the uprise of Klingon youth going into law school and buisness finance studies, will the Klingon Empire Convince the warring tribes of the Youtja too take them under thier wing and teach them the ways of the hunter, since being warriors has accomplished jack s--- for them so far, unaware that they must first survive being stalked by Zenomorph's and psychotic human children abducted by the Youtja too become human predators, only too turn on thier alian teachers and go on a xenophobic extermination campaign, making the giant predators an endangered spiecies? Will the FCA and FCC use thier influence in communications and economic influence too bring unheard of profits in unregulated sports betting too broadcast these blood sports for record profits, stacking the odds in thier favor by providing insane human children with Youtja training and technology, intel on where too find thier prey, and how best to apply thier coup fe grace publicly, humiliating the alien assholes who took them from thier parents and applied the ultimate mindf--- on thier young, impressionable little mind's? Or will thier be no direct merging of these particular franchises between these partner entertainment entities. Being the third largest comic and movies franchise, with part ownership in D.C. and Marvel, will Darkhorse stand on it's own with only Ash, to keep the Predators and Zenomorph's on thier metaphorical toes, as He comes in with shotgun and chainsaw blazing, yelling "She bitch!!! Let's go!!!"?
submitted by kirkselvaggio to u/kirkselvaggio [link] [comments]

2020 Psychedelic Industry Insights Report

By: Nikita Alexandrov BChem, MBA - CTO, ThinkMyco
Jan 8th, 2020
2019 was a pivotal year in the psychedelic industry with US decriminalization actions, two companies receiving FDA breakthrough status for psilocybin, funding of the $16M Johns Hopkins Psychedelic Research Center, The US Defence Department starting their rumored $20M+ Focused Pharma psychedelic science program and the movement of top universities into research and clinical trials. With the explosion of the more than $100M dollars worth of investable psychedelic opportunities in Q3 2019, the collapse of high quality cannabis investments, one of the best Decembers on record and a potential $1B scale psychedelic IPO - 2020 will be the year of psychedelic investment.
The movement in the field recently is just a blip compared to what is to come, this industry has been brewing for the last few decades. Big Pharma has failed when it comes to new approaches to brain and central nervous system treatment. Due to poor understanding of mechanisms, complex clinical trials and systematic side effects, Neuro drugs have half the success rate of all Pharma projects, which caused most of the big players to reduce or cut their Neuro programs in the last decades. Recently, engagement is exploding with new clinical legislature supporting Neuro and the recent approval of 3 potentially blockbuster Neuro drugs in the last 2 years,
Q2 2019 saw a record of over $320M in investment into Neuro drug development. Interestingly enough an influential group of ultra-high net worth individuals including PayPal founder Peter Thiel funded the psychedelic holding company Atai Lifesciences which went on to fund Compass Pathways and continues to fund commercial efforts in this field. Atai Lifesciences recent movements are a familiar story of acquisition and consolidation in an emerging market which will be a common theme in the future of the psychedelic industry. In 2019 Atai Lifesciences acquired Perception Neuroscience and GABA Therapeutics for their next generation tranquillisers. Last week, Atai also acquired NeuroNasal, a non-psychedelic company creating a concussion nasal spray. In partnership with pharma, Atai's recent launch of EntheogeniX, an AI based psychedelic drug discovery platform, shows that Atai is serious about making investments into the fundamental research required to continue being an industry leader in the long-term. It is rumoured that Atai has made a number of cash investments recently, so new partnerships and acquisitions should be expected in the next months.
The collapse of investable cannabis opportunities are driving investors comfortable in stigmatised industries and binary risk to the table with big pharma, cutting edge science and huge unmet market needs to create a perfect storm of opportunity.
Highlight:
Investors seek 'mega blockbuster' drugs as neuroscience undergoes renaissance
How big is the Psychedelics Industry?
Historically, the psychedelics industry has been fragmented with around $60M worth of companies in the last 20 years, many of which were not sustainable. The current industry is around $220M+ worth of investments, dominated by the Peter Thiel backed Atia Lifesciences at $100M+ and Compass Pathways at $50M+, followed by Mind Medicine at $10M+, Fieldtrip Ventures at $10M+ and then a 10-25 early companies in the range of $2.5-10M each. The $220M+ worth of investable deals have only existed since the public formation of Compass Pathways in 2016, with the majority leaving stealth mode in 2019.
Highlight:
Transforming psychedelics into mainstream medicines
How big is the Psychedelics Market?
The psychedelics market is emerging while highly coupled to clinical/regulatory events and is split between recreational and medical psychedelic markets:
Recreational: $8-19.2B
Calculated from cannabis market and comparable usage prevalence as well as demand size economics.
Medical: $373B+
Calculated from the main markets addressable by psychedelic therapeutics (neurogenics market): mental health drugs, therapy spending, neurodegeneration drugs and cognitive enhancement.
Highlight:
Analysis of the Psilocybin Pharmaceutical Market
Who are the players?
Atai Lifesciences - German based, Global psychedelic pharma holding company formed by ultra-high net worth individuals and big pharma, $100M+
Compass Pathways - London based psychedelic giant, Atai's bet on psilocybin as an approved drug for depression, $50M+, IPO 2020
Usona Institute - A Wisconsin based non-profit powerhouse competing with Compass Pathways to approve psilocybin for depression.
Mind Medicine - Toronto based ibogaine derived addiction drug development company taking their lead candidate 18-MC through the clinical approval process, $15M+, RTO in 2020
Eleusis Benefit Corporation - New Orleans based discovery/clinical stage Psychedelic pharma company supported by industry scientists, raising $25M
FieldTrip Ventures - Toronto based, Aurora backed magic mushroom research and development company building clinical and production infrastructure, raising $12M+
ThinkMyco - Vancouver based holding company developing disruptive mushroom production technology and next generation therapeutics, raising $5M+
Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals - Psychedelic drug discovery company affiliated with the Atai owned Perception Neuroscience and Columbia University, raising 10M+
Universal Ibogaine - Vancouver based Ibogaine clinical development company franchising the world's most advanced ibogaine clinical model, raising $10M+, RTO in 2020
PsyGen Labs - Alberta based psychedelic mass production and clinical research company with highly experienced production chemists $8M+
Entheogen Biosciences - Vancouver based company pursuing psilocybin and DMT based drug development, raising $3M, IPO in 2020
Salvation Botanicals - A Vancouver based company touting a private controlled substances site license and supporting clinical research, raising $10M+, RTO in 2020
Numinus Wellness - Vancouver based wellness company building testing as well as clinical infrastructure, partnered with Salvation, raising $5M+, RTO in 2020
Cybin Corp - Toronto based research and development company building drug development and production infrastructure as well as nutraceutical assets in legal jurisdictions, raising $3M
Emerging Players - There are a number of emerging players, around $35M+ in emerging deals in Q3 2019 which have not passed due diligence.
Clinical:
Recent data is showing psychedelics can be real mega blockbuster Neuro drugs. Johns Hopkins recent trial on Psilocybin for smoking cessation showed an 80% success rate in terminating nicotine addiction, more than double any known therapeutic approach, including nicotine replacement therapy. This is showing addiction can be treated with new mechanisms that are much more low level than replacing the drug in the receptor. Academic data unequivocally shows that Ibogaine is 95% successful in terminating acute opioid withdrawal symptoms permanently from a single dosage. Limited data from long-term Ibogaine for opioid addiction trials show 50% success rates in terminating addiction in the 6 month period with a single dosage, more than 10X higher than the generous 5% success rate of other approaches in the 6 month period. Data from leading Ibogaine providers like Universal Ibogaine show that this 50% figure can be pushed closer to 75% with proper protocols and aftercare. Clinical trials on Psilocybin for cocaine/crack addiction are ongoing at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, a top 20 medical research university. 10 patients were un-blinded for bioethics review and the unpublished data shows that 30% never touched crack again while the other 70% had a relapse or two and turned their lives around, showing a 100% success rate in changing lives with minimal cost. When this data is available publicly in the next years, tidal waves of interest will move into the field.
Highlight:
Psychedelic Clinical Research Timeline
Projections:
As a recreational market, 0.1% of the population was surveyed as using psychedelics in the last month, placing the current black market at $19.1B while as a comparable percentage of the legal cannabis market adjusted for prevalence would place it at $8B.
As a medical market, the $373B neurogenics market seems to be the addressable market. Penetration into any indication in the neurogenics market would reap vast rewards. Psilocybin is on track to compete in the depression market with two FDA breakthrough designations, a 2% penetration into the depression market would being $1.4B+ in value yearly. Ibogaine's very reasonable projected 5% penetration into the opioid dependence market in the next 10 years will bring $9.6B+ in value yearly to groups like Universal Ibogaine which are deploying clinical infrastructure, supporting clinical trials and controlling the Ibogaine supply chain. Of all of the indications in current psychedelic clinical trials, not considering crossover, they address a $400B+ market, with projected penetrations across each indication and adjustments for market factors, it is projected $16B+ of value yearly will be created from commercialisation of the current late stage clinical trials which are in progress.
Highlight:
Johns Hopkins Psilocybin for Smoking Cessation Data
Challenges:
Regulatory Challenges:
While nearly 100 cities are creating legislation to decriminalize psychedelics and multiple US jurisdictions have passed decriminalization, federal changes will be required to open legal markets to the full potential. While investing in the binary risk of regulatory changes is standard in the junior markets, current regulatory controls are preventing early revenues. Many Canadian companies building production and distribution infrastructure offshore in jurisdictions such as Jamaica are operating in a legal grey area. While it is legal in Jamaica, any benefit or advantage given to a Canadian company could be considered a proceed of crime including IP development, capital repatriation and validation of technology offshore. Section 56 exemptions from Health Canada are required for Canadian companies working with psychedelics offshore and companies which are raising investment dollars without a secured Section 56 exemption may be incurring legal risk.
Cardiac Liability:
The unspoken elephant in the room of psychedelic derived pharmaceutical acceptance is not regulation, for example Ketamine is a scheduled drug which was recently approved for the general market. The problem is actually the liability of bringing a seratonergic based drug to the market like Psilocybin, DMT and LSD. The crippling withdrawal of blockbuster drug Fen-Phen and issues with other drugs like Imitrex due to seratonin agonist effects on the heart have scared the FDA into a position that any seratonergic drug will require extreme cooperation and diligence and will absolutely incur additional clinical and monitoring costs over other drugs. Psilocybin while technically hitting the 5ht2b receptor which causes cardiac side effects, does not have a high enough affinity to be a deal-breaker, meanwhile LSD having a very high affinity will cause large barriers for groups attempting to bring microdosed LSD to the market. Ibogaine suffers from cardiac liability due to an entirely different mechanism and unlike Psilocybin or LSD, adverse events have been reported. While Methadone and other standards of care also have the same long-QT cardiac liability at much higher rates and significantly higher mortality rates , Ibogaine clinical models must pre-screen patients for existing heart defects before procedures to guarantee no adverse side effects.
Banking/Insurance/Exchange Issues:
Legitimate psychedelic derived drug development companies have already had bank accounts halted at multiple banks for involvement in this industry and moving forward similar challenges faced by the cannabis industry should be expected. Exchanges and public offerings will have logistic challenges with this industry and minor friction has already been seen in the listing process. DNO insurance and other underwriting will be required to list in large markets and to date no psychedelic company has been underwritten, although underwriters and leading insurance brokers are actively exploring his industry.
Reimbursement:
The real whale will be insurance and single payer reimbursement of psychedelic derived pharmaceuticals on the market, allowing for global market uptake. Health systems have traditionally been decades behind the state of the art as seen in the point of care and home diagnostic device market, a market which could keep people healthy at minimal cost but has been crippled by lack of reimbursement.
Supply Chain Commoditization:
The production and control of psychedelic supply chains which is the familiar play of the cannabis industry will be a race to the bottom with magic mushrooms and other psychedelics. Production models are competing with a much more fluid black market and are being cannibalized by low cost home production and wildcrafting of psilocybin mushrooms. The LSD or ergoloid supply chain is highly monopolized, with the majority of the worlds ergoloids being produced in a single location. Companies competing in the production and supply chain space will face heavy price pressure and a highly coupled global regulatory system. The single outlier is Ibogaine, with a current global use estimated around 90kg, expected to reach 280kg in the next few years, this is a commodity whose price will drive through the roof. Large ibogaine producers have stopped production and natural sources are not commercially viable, with an Iboga plant producing maybe a single dose on the 10 year period, the move of Ibogaine to endangered status in 2019 and no synthetic GMP producers - the Ibogaine market is legal in the majority of the world and exploding while highly underserved and fragmented.
Delivery System Challenges:
A number of recent psychedelic deals are built around new drug delivery systems for psychedelics entering the recreational market to build expertise and infrastructure ready to move into the pharmaceutical market. Many of these technological approaches will not translate from the recreational market to the pharmaceutical market such as CBD/psychedelic compositions, natural product compositions as well as vaporizer and inhaler based delivery systems. While 20%+ of all new FDA drug entities are derived from natural products, natural product mixtures containing many products and a controlled substance have never and will never be FDA approved due to the regulatory system. Companies developing Psilocybin/CBD combinations and related therapeutics for the recreational market should understand that unlike the cannabis market, recreational approaches will not translate directly to medical approaches.
Opportunities:
Syndicated Investments:
One of the largest opportunities in any emerging market is syndicated investment, a 2002 analysis of 584 venture backed exits showed that syndicated investments produced double the rate of return of non-syndicated investments. Psychedelic research and development companies require standardized infrastructure that can be leveraged across a number of players. The big players entering the industry are more interested in empire building, requiring massive consolidations of commercial efforts which can be facilitated by syndicated investment groups. Companies like ThinkMyco, Entheogen Biosciences and Cybin Corporation which focus on technology development, IP Portfolios and early stage drug discovery will benefit the most from syndicated investment and collaboration. A Harvard Business School review of Pharma discovery programs statistically compared drug discovery programs to weapons research programs and found in these high reward/low incremental cost programs the optimal path is to run parallel programs, with an average Pharma drug discovery program having 16 parallel programs, 10 core and 6 low budget/high risk. At the current moment, around 5-10 psychedelic investment funds are forming in the range of $10-50M each, including the Cannacord Genuity backed Entheos and the $20M psychedelic quant fund Tabula Rasa Ventures.
IP Portfolio Development:
IP development is the highest value for dollar on the investment value chain and the psychedelic industry will be a totally IP driven industry. The most valuable patent portfolios will include new psychedelic compositions and therapeutic mechanisms, which require significant investments into fundamental R+D, while less competitive portfolios will include delivery system/psychedelic combinations.A recent review of patents related to psychedelics shows many hundreds of patents for psychedelic derived therapeutics with only a small cross-section being commercially competitive. DemeRX, the $40M+ Ibogaine research company holds 65+ patents in the ibogaine therapeutic area. While DemeRX filed for bankruptcy and their research and development assets were liquidated, it is rumored they have been injected with enough capital to come back to the party - this is a dark horse to keep an eye out for.
Mushroom/Protein Connection:
The real opportunity in magic mushroom production models is flying under the radar: protein production. Mushrooms are one of the highest quality sources of nutrition and protein, if you took a vitamin C supplement you can live exclusively off mushrooms. Dried mushrooms have basically the same protein percentage as beef and in terms of grams of protein per acre per year are 100 fold higher producers and much more sustainable than traditional agricultural practices. Companies in this space which invest into real R+D for lower cost mushroom production will get a lift from the $1.8+ trillion dollar protein market. A recent review of mid-sized mushroom farms shows that 50%+ of the cost of mushroom production is due to labor and technical inefficiencies. If energy, labor and materials cost drivers can be reduced, and the cost of growing a pound of mushrooms can drop from around $2 to around $0.75 through automation, mushroom protein becomes significantly more commercially competitive than many of the industry leaders in plant based protein like pea protein. If energy cost reductions can drop the cost even further, mushrooms will become a disruptive food source. Psychedelic companies building mushroom production infrastructure will be well served to remember that by investing in automation, new technology and new growing systems the price of mushroom based protein production can make it more competitive than any other food source. The largest food security report in history was released Q2 2019 and showed that without subsidies a hamburger would cost more than 30$ and the meat industry will economically collapse by 2040, the protein game is looking more and more attractive as a hedge against the regulatory risk of magic mushroom production.
China:
China is one of the most advanced markets in terms of size and pharma spending, as well as venture investment. Traditionally the Asian cultures had no interest in marginalized and politically tense areas such as drug medicalization but the movement into CBD and China's rabid interest in plant medicines may create a large influx of Asian capital moving into psychedelics. This industry shifting action will be leveraged by education and the court of public opinion. A dialog must be created showing psilocybin as a plant medicine and not a drug of abuse. Interestingly enough, Chinese firms have very recently started producing magic mushrooms industrially and importing them into the Canadian market where they are sold into the black market over-the-counter in some Canadian herbalist stores.
Ibogaine:
Ibogaine is the only psychedelic model which will not be very quickly commoditized. Ibogaine as a solution to the opioid problem is a disruptive technology, with the rise of fentanyl and fentanyl analogs like carfentanil dominating global supply chains, Buprenorphine, the preferred standard of care is no longer effective and produces a life threatening condition called Precipitated Withdrawal. This is due to the aggressive affinity of fentanyl to receptors, the lack of tolerance ceiling and the little understood metabolism of next-generation fentanyl analogues, dramatically compounding a problem already at pandemic levels. Ibogaine supply chains have collapsed at the same time that demand is growing exponentially, the firm which dominates the current global ibogaine supply chain will reap around $1.4M/mo profit serving the current global demand. One of the largest African Ibogaine brokers has seen a 30x increase in sales from 2017 to 2019. With Universal Ibogaine taking Ibogaine through the Canadian clinical process and the grassroots support from Health Canada, Ibogaine will be the first psychedelic approach available to consumers. While Ibogaine is a scheduled drug in the US and some European jurisdictions, it is not scheduled in Canada and the majority of the global market. Multiple Ibogaine documentaries are in filming, including actors such as Johnny Depp, as this is an education driven industry, we should expect exponential growth to accelerate in 2020.
Support Industries:
Industries supporting the growth of psychedelics will be a large part of the future landscape as was seen in the cannabis sector. A psychedelic business support network including education, conferences, business analysis and financing have already cropped up commercially. In Q3 2019 the renowned Cambridge House International Extraordinary Future conference created a panel for psychedelic opportunities. Two weeks before the conference there was a frantic rush and the majority of relevant psychedelic players were represented last minute in the panel discussion including: Compass Pathways, FieldTrip Ventures, Mind Medicine, Johns Hopkins, Dennis McKenna and ThinkMyco. Multiple psychedelic investment funds are forming alongside of industry press, consulting groups and other support interests. In Q3 2019, Dr. Matthew Thompson of Johns Hopkins and Dr. Charles Nichols of LSU/Eleusis Benefit Corporation helped organize the inaugural conference for the new journal called International Society for Research on Psychedelics in its home of New Orleans. Over 100 international scientists from top universities were represented, with the conference having to turn down many late registrations. Dr. Rolland Griffiths, head of the Johns Hopkins Psychedelic Research Center said "This was the best scientific conference I have been to in my entire career.".
Sub-perceptual dosing:
Microdosing was popularized by Silicon Valley, catalyzing the resurgence of the psychedelic industry but microdosing is a protocol built on unsound fundamentals. Research shows that the therapeutic effects of psychedelics are highly dose dependant, higher doses lead to better therapeutic effects. The microdosing supply chain model has excellent returns, with a pound of mushrooms costing less than 5$/lb to produce which provides around 1200X microdoses. When dosages increase past the perceptual threshold, the potential for adverse events such as bad trips exponentially increases. The ideal dosage seems to be just under perceptual threshold where you can still go about your day, but much higher than a microdose. This is industry standard with seratonergic pharmaceuticals, an example being the diet drug Belvique, which is closely related to psilocybin, dosed at the perceptual threshold for maximum effectiveness. Belvique can cause psilocybin like hallucinations if 4 tablets are taken as it is a seratonergic drug. High doses of psilocybin require a clinical infrastructure and in-patient experience, dramatically increasing costs and logistics overheads. Sub-perceptual dosed pharmaceuticals will be available for out-patient and take home treatment and in many cases may be as effective as full blown psychedelic experiences. Mind Medicine, ThinkMyco and Eleusis Benefit Corporation are leading the charge in sub-perceptual therapeutics.
Next Generation Drug Development:
Mind Medicine is taking the approach of engineering the hallucinations out of the therapeutic experience by removing parts of the molecule and are moving their drug, 18-MC through the clinical process. This is the ultimate high risk/high reward play in the psychedelic industry. 18-MC is modified which also changes a variety of important receptor binding effects. The modified receptors include the receptors responsible for neural growth factor release, cognitive effects, cardiac effects and the opioid system coupled NMDA receptor system. Since there is no data on the human use of 18-MC in opioid addicts, significant capital must be deployed before it is even known if 18-MC is as efficient as the parent molecule Ibogaine for treating opioid addiction, the ability to treat addiction in an out-patient setting with no cardiac toxicity - 18-MC will be the megablockbuster all investors in the neurogenic space are waiting for. ThinkMyco, Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals, Mind Medicine and Eleusis Benefit Corporation are leading the field in next generation drug development.
Lateral Drug Development:
While psychedelics address a $373B neurogenics market, companies such as Eleusis Benefit Corporation are showing they can address other unmet clinical needs such as chronic inflammatory disease. Eleusis is developing new psychedelic compounds for the treatment of inflammation, specifically within ophthalmology, and has recently published Phase I trial results revealing the safety and tolerability of low dose LSD in healthy older adults, with the intention of evaluating low dose LSD as a disease modifying therapy in Alzheimer's disease. Eleusis Benefit Corporation looks poised to cannibalize the $3B steroid therapeutic market. Not yet published research is showing Ibogaines potential as a therapeutic to treat sleep disorders. Johns Hopkins is currently reviewing the application of psychedelics in pulling patients from comas and vegetative states. The original pre-Mind Medicine clinical trials on the Ibogaine derivative 18-MC showed promise in treating Leishmania infection. BOL148, an inactive form of LSD, originally the placebo in human clinical LSD research, was found to in some cases to permanently terminate cluster headaches after a few doses and is being publicly demanded from the cluster headache community. These are the earliest days of understanding the application of psychedelic derived chemistry as new therapeutic approaches.
Public Health Engagement:
Looking at recently released data representing North American, working class adults, methamphetamine and fentanyl use is growing enormously and consistently. Linear regression of growth rates over the last 5 years projects a 380%+ increase in Fentanyl usage the next 15 years, with Methamphetamine projected at a 475%+ increase. This is concerning as there are more than a million high quality data points over 5 years and an R2 value of 90%+ which paints of picture of statistical certainty. This shows that the opioid crisis has moved from a lift caused by supply side drivers to an organically growing demand side driven pandemic, fueled secondarily by histories cheapest and most available synthetic drugs. With Johnson and Johnson settling with two counties in Ohio, projections have placed the total at $100B+ in fines for the opioid crisis in the next few years. State jurisdictions will shortly receive an enormous amount of cash that will be legally obligated to flow into anti-addiction spending. Due to poor outcomes and non-scalable approaches around advanced public health programs, there will be a flurry of legislature to address how to spend the $100B+ anti-addiction warchest. Players like Universal Ibogaine who have proven clinical models, can deploy infrastructure and guarantee statistically better outcomes will receive unprecedented amounts of non-dilutive government funding and will be the first to benefit from Decriminalization/Medicalization in the North American market. Players that can come to the table now at the state level and propose medicalization legislature as well as profitable clinical infrastructure with proven outcomes, could monopolize the entire US market. FieldTrip Ventures is developing Psilocybin clinical infrastructure while Universal Ibogaine is deploying proven clinical infrastructure already developed and proven by Clear Sky Recovery, the leading Ibogaine clinical experts with thousands of successful detox procedures and no critical adverse events.
Closing:
Like any emerging industry, there are challenges and growing pains but the blue-sky upside is unparalleled. "Black swan events are characterised by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight." Due to changes in public opinion, a mental health and addiction pandemic as well as enormous movements of liquid cash, this sector is poised to explode in 2020.
submitted by mindovermatterlondon to investing [link] [comments]

How do the big syndicates bet into tote pools?

I'm more so referring to Australian or Hong Kong horse racing where the race doesn't always start on time and horses can be withdrawn from the barriers etc. Isn't it impossible to get your bets on at the right time and right price? Also what happens when all the big syndicates pile into a horse in the last seconds and it ends up well below what is considered 'value'?
submitted by onthepunt to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Updated List of Unreleased Characters in Story and Lore

First off, this list started a long time ago when Dere-Derela made a thread about it, so they deserve credit for much of the groundwork here. I wanted to revive this list, and see if we could add more to it. I expanded it heavily by studying the weapon stories, which mention a lot of historic characters, some of which are implied to still be around in some form or fashion.
Characters on wyrmprints:
Story characters:
Characters Referenced in Story Dialogue and Weapon descriptions:
CrossoveAlternate Universe Characters
Dragon Possibilities from Various Sources
I'm sure there are characters from events, dragon stories, or maybe elsewhere in the game that I have probably left out. If you find one, send it and I'll add them in! Share your theories too, even if not substantiated by in-game lore!
submitted by Zebularius to DragaliaLost [link] [comments]

2020 Psychedelic Industry Insights Report - ThinkMyco

2020 Psychedelic Industry Insights Report
By: Nikita Alexandrov BChem, MBA - CTO, ThinkMyco
[email protected]
Jan 8th, 2020
2019 was a pivotal year in the psychedelic industry with US decriminalization actions, two companies receiving FDA breakthrough status for psilocybin, funding of the $16M Johns Hopkins Psychedelic Research Center, The US Defence Department starting their rumored $20M+ Focused Pharma psychedelic science program and the movement of top universities into research and clinical trials. With the explosion of the more than $100M dollars worth of investable psychedelic opportunities in Q3 2019, the collapse of high quality cannabis investments, one of the best decembers on record and a potential $1B scale psychedelic IPO - 2020 will be the year of psychedelic investment.
The movement in the field recently is just a blip compared to what is to come, this industry has been brewing for the last few decades. Big Pharma has failed when it comes to new approaches to brain and central nervous system treatment. Neuro drugs have half the success rate of all Pharma projects, which caused most of the big players to liquidate their neuro programs in the last decade. Recently, engagement is exploding with new clinical legislature supporting neuro, the recent approval of 3 potentially blockbuster neuro drugs in the last 2 years, Q2 2019 saw a record of over $320M in investment into neuro drug development. Interestingly enough an influential group of ultra-high net worth individuals to funded the psychedelic holding company Atai Lifesciences which went on to fund Compass Pathways and continues to fund commercial efforts in this field. Atai Lifesciences recent movements are a familiar story of acquisition and consolidation in an emerging market which will be a common theme in the future of the psychedelic industry. The collapse of investable cannabis opportunities are driving investors comfortable in stigmatized industries and binary risk to the table with big pharma, cutting edge science and huge unmet market needs to create a perfect storm of opportunity.
Highlight:
Investors seek 'mega blockbuster' drugs as neuroscience undergoes renaissance
How big is the Psychedelic Industry?
Historically, the psychedelic industry has been fragmented with around $60M worth of companies in the last 20 years, many of which were not sustainable. The current industry is around $300M worth of investments, dominated by the Peter Thiel backed Atia Lifesciences at $100M+ and Compass Pathways at $50M+, followed by Mind Medicine at $10M+, Fieldtrip Ventures at $10M+ and then a 10-15 early companies in the range of $2.5-10M each. The $300M worth of investable deals have only existed since the public formation of Compass Pathways in 2016, with the majority leaving stealth mode in 2019.
Highlight:
Transforming psychedelics into mainstream medicines
How big is the Psychedelic Market?
The psychedelic market is emerging while highly coupled to clinical/regulatory events and is split between recreational and medical psychedelic markets:
Recreational: $8-19.2B
Calculated from cannabis market and comparable usage prevalence as well as demand size economics.
Medical: $373B
Calculated from the main markets addressable by psychedelic therapeutics (neurogenics market): mental health drugs, therapy spending, neurodegeneration drugs and cognitive enhancement.
Highlight: Analysis of the Psilocybin Pharmaceutical Market
Who are the players?
Atai Lifesciences - German based, Global psychedelic pharma holding company formed by ultra-high net worth individuals and big pharma, $150M+
Compass Pathways - London based psychedelic giant, Atai's bet on psilocybin as an approved drug for depression, $50M+, IPO 2020
Usona Institute - A Wisconsin based non-profit powerhouse competing with Compass Pathways to approve psilocybin for depression.
Mind Medicine - Toronto based ibogaine derived addiction drug development company taking their lead candidate 18-MC through the clinical approval process, raising $15M, RTO in 2020
Eleusis Benefit Corporation - New Orleans based discovery/clinical stage Psychedelic pharma company supported by industry scientists, raising $25M
FieldTrip Ventures - Toronto based, Aurora backed magic mushroom research and development company building clinical and production infrastructure, raising $10M+
ThinkMyco - Vancouver based holding company developing disruptive mushroom production technology and next generation therapeutics, raising $5M+
Gilgamesh - Psychedelic drug discovery company affiliated with the Atai owned Perception Neuroscience and Columbia University, raising 10M+
Universal Ibogaine - Vancouver based Ibogaine clinical development company franchising the world's most advanced ibogaine clinical model, raising $10M+, RTO in 2020
PsyGen - Alberta based psychedelic mass production and clinical research company with highly experienced production chemists $5M+
Entheogen Biosciences - Vancouver based company pursuing psilocybin and DMT based drug development, raising $3M, IPO in 2020
Salvation Botanicals - A Vancouver based company touting a private controlled substances site license and supporting clinical research, raising $10M+, RTO in 2020 Numinus Wellness - Vancouver based wellness company building testing as well as clinical infrastructure, partnered with Salvation, raising $5M+, RTO in 2020
Cybin Corp - Toronto based research and development company building drug development and production infrastructure as well as nutraceutical assets in legal jurisdictions, raising $3M
Emerging Players - There are a number of emerging players, around $25M+ in emerging deals in Q3 2019 which have not passed due diligence.

Clinical:
Recent data is showing psychedelics can be real mega blockbuster neuro drugs. Johns Hopkins recent trial on Psilocybin for smoking cessation showed an 80% success rate in terminating nicotine addiction, more than double any known therapeutic approach, including nicotine replacement therapy. Academic data shows that Ibogaine is 95% successful in terminating acute opioid withdrawal/addiction. Limited data from Ibogaine for opioid addiction trials show 50% success rates in terminating addiction, more than 10X higher than the generous 5% success rate of other approaches. Data from leading Ibogaine providers like Universal Ibogaine show that this 50% figure can be pushed closer to 75% with proper protocols and aftercare. Clinical trials on Psilocybin for cocaine/crack addiction are ongoing at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, a top 20 medical research university. 10 patients were un-blinded for bioethics review and the unpublished data shows that 30% never touched cocaine again while the other 70% had a relapse or two and turned their lives around, showing a 100% success rate in changing lives with minimal cost. When this data is available publicly in the next years, tidal waves of interest will move into the field.
Highlight:
Psychedelic Clinical Research Timeline
Projections:
As a recreational market, 0.1% of the population was surveyed as using psychedelics in the last month, placing the current black market at $19.1B while as a comparable percentage of the legal cannabis market adjusted for prevalence would place it at $8B.
As a medical market, the $373B neurogenics market seems to be the addressable market. Penetration into any indication in the neurogenics market would reap vast rewards, Psilocybin is on track to compete in the depression market with two FDA breakthrough designations, a 2% penetration into the depression market would being $1.4B in value. Ibogaines very reasonable projected 4% penetration into the opioid dependence market will bring $9.6B in value yearly to groups like Universal Ibogaine which are deploying clinical infrastructure, supporting clinical trials and controlling the Ibogaine supply chain. Of all of the indications in current psychedelic clinical trials, not considering crossover, they address a $400B+ market, with projected penetrations across each indication and adjustments for market factors, it is projected $16B+ of value yearly will be created from commercialization of current late stage clinical trials.
Highlight: Johns Hopkins Psilocybin for Smoking Cessation Data
Challenges:
Regulatory Challenges:
While nearly 100 cities are creating legislation to decriminalize psychedelics and multiple US jurisdictions have passed decriminalization, federal changes will be required to open legal markets to the full potential. While investing in the binary risk of regulatory changes is standard in the junior markets, current regulatory controls are preventing early revenues. Many Canadian companies building production and distribution infrastructure offshore in jurisdictions such as Jamaica are operating in a legal grey area. While it is legal in Jamaica, any benefit or advantage given to a Canadian company could be considered a proceed of crime including IP development, capital repatriation and validation of technology offshore. Section 56 exemptions from Health Canada are required for Canadian companies working with psychedelics offshore and companies which are raising investment dollars without a secured Section 56 exemption may be incurring legal risk.
Cardiac Liability:
The unspoken elephant in the room of psychedelic derived pharmaceutical acceptance is not regulation, for example Ketamine is a scheduled drug which was recently approved. The problem is actually the liability of bringing a seratonergic based drug to the market like Psilocybin, DMT and LSD. The crippling withdrawal of blockbuster drugs Fen-Phen and issues with other drugs like Imitrex due to seratonin agonist effects on the heart have scared the FDA into a position that any seratonergic drug will require extreme cooperation and diligence and will absolutely incur additional clinical and monitoring costs over other drugs. Psilocybin while technically hitting the 5ht2b receptor which causes cardiac side effects, does not have a high enough affinity to be a deal-breaker, meanwhile LSD having a very high affinity will cause large barriers for groups attempting to bring microdosed LSD to the market. Ibogaine suffers from cardiac liability due to an entirely different mechanism and unlike Psilocybin or LSD, adverse events have been reported. While Methadone and other standards of care also have the same long-QT cardiac liability at much higher rates and significantly higher mortality rates , Ibogaine clinical models must pre-screen patients for existing heart defects before procedures to guarantee no adverse side effects.
Banking/Insurance/Exchange Issues:
Legitimate psychedelic derived drug development companies have already had bank accounts halted at multiple banks for involvement in this industry and moving forward similar challenges faced by the cannabis industry should be expected. Exchanges and public offerings will have logistic challenges with this industry and minor friction has already been seen in the listing process. DNO insurance and other underwriting will be required to list in large markets and to date no psychedelic company has been underwritten, although underwriters and leading insurance brokers are actively exploring his industry.
Reimbursement:
The real whale will be insurance and single payer reimbursement of psychedelic derived pharmaceuticals on the market, allowing for global market uptake. Health systems have traditionally been decades behind the state of the art as seen in the point of care and home diagnostic device market, a market which could keep people healthy at minimal cost but has been crippled by lack of reimbursement.
Supply Chain Commoditization:
The production and control of psychedelic supply chains which is the familiar play of the cannabis industry will be a race to the bottom with magic mushrooms and other psychedelics. Production models are competing with a much more fluid black market and are being cannibalized by low cost home production and wildcrafting of psilocybin mushrooms. The LSD or ergoloid supply chain is highly monopolized, with the majority of the worlds ergoloids being produced in a single location.
Companies competing in the production and supply chain space will face heavy price pressure and a highly coupled global regulatory system. The single outlier is Ibogaine, with a current global use estimated around 90kg, expected to reach 280kg in the next two years, this is a commodity whose price will drive through the roof. Large ibogaine producers have stopped production and natural sources are not commercially viable, with an Iboga plant producing maybe a single dose on the 10 year period, the move of ibogaine to endangered status in 2019 and no synthetic GMP producers - the ibogaine market is legal in the majority of the world and exploding while highly underserved and fragmented.
Delivery System Challenges:
A number of recent psychedelic deals are built around new drug delivery systems for psychedelics entering the recreational market to build expertise and infrastructure ready to move into the pharmaceutical market. Many of these technological approaches will not translate from the recreational market to the pharmaceutical market such as CBD/psychedelic compositions, natural product compositions as well as vaporizer and inhaler based delivery systems. While 20%+ of all new FDA drug entities are derived from natural products, natural product mixtures containing many products and a controlled substance have never and will never be FDA approved due to the regulatory system. Companies developing Psilocybin/CBD combinations and related therapeutics for the recreational market should understand that unlike the cannabis market, recreational approaches will not translate directly to medical approaches.
Opportunities:
Syndicated Investments:
One of the largest opportunities in any emerging market is syndicated investment, a 2002 analysis of 584 venture backed exits showed that syndicated investments produced double the rate of return of non-syndicated investments. Psychedelic research and development companies require standardized infrastructure that can be leveraged across a number of players. The big players entering the industry are more interested in empire building, requiring massive consolidations of commercial efforts which can be facilitated by syndicated investment groups. Companies like ThinkMyco, Entheogen Biosciences and Cybin Corporation which focus on technology development, IP Portfolios and early stage drug discovery will benefit the most from syndicated investment and collaboration. A Harvard Business School review of Pharma discovery programs statistically compared drug discovery programs to weapons research programs and found in these high reward/low incremental cost programs the optimal path is to run parallel programs, with an average Pharma drug discovery program having 16 parallel programs, 10 core and 6 low budget/high risk.
IP Portfolio Development:
IP development is the highest value for dollar on the investment value chain and the psychedelic industry will be a totally IP driven industry. The most valuable patent portfolios will include new psychedelic compositions and therapeutic mechanisms, which require significant investments into fundamental R+D, while less competitive portfolios will include delivery system/psychedelic combinations.
A recent review of patents related to psychedelics shows many hundreds of patents for psychedelic derived therapeutics with only a small cross-section being commercially competitive. DemeRX, the $40M+ Ibogaine research company holds 65+ patents in the ibogaine therapeutic area. While DemeRX filed for bankruptcy and their research and development assets were liquidated, it is rumored they have been injected with enough capital to come back to the party - this is a dark horse to keep an eye out for.
Mushroom/Protein Connection:
The real opportunity in magic mushroom production models is flying under the radar: protein production. Mushrooms are one of the highest quality sources of nutrition and protein, if you took a vitamin C supplement you can live exclusively off mushrooms. Dried mushrooms have basically the same protein percentage as beef and in terms of grams of protein per acre per year are 100 fold higher producers and much more sustainable than traditional agricultural practices. Companies in this space which invest into real R+D for lower cost mushroom production will get a lift from the $1.8 trillion dollar protein market. A recent review of mid-sized mushroom farms shows that 50%+ of the cost of mushroom production is due to labor and technical inefficiencies. If energy, labor and materials cost drivers can be reduced, and the cost of growing a pound of mushrooms can drop from around $2 to around $1.20 through automation, mushroom protein becomes significantly more competitive than many of the industry leaders in plant based protein like pea protein. If energy cost reductions can drop the cost even further, mushrooms will become a disruptive food source. Psychedelic companies building mushroom production infrastructure will be well served to remember that by investing in automation, new technology and new growing systems the price of mushroom based protein production can make it more competitive than any other food source. The largest food security report in history was released Q2 2019 and showed that without subsidies a hamburger would cost more than 30$ and the meat industry will economically collapse by 2040, the protein game is looking more and more attractive as a hedge against the regulatory risk of magic mushroom production.
China:
China is one of the most advanced markets in terms of size and pharma spending, as well as venture investment. Traditionally the Asian cultures had no interest in marginalized and politically tense areas such as drug medicalization but the movement into CBD and China's rabid interest in plant medicines may create a large influx of Asian capital moving into psychedelics. This industry shifting action will be leveraged by education and the court of public opinion. A dialog must be created showing psilocybin as a plant medicine and not a drug of abuse. Interestingly enough, Chinese firms have very recently started producing magic mushrooms industrially and importing them into the Canadian market where they are sold into the black market over-the-counter in some Canadian herbalist stores.
Ibogaine:
Ibogaine is the only psychedelic model which will not be very quickly commoditized. Ibogaine as a solution to the opioid problem is a disruptive technology, with the rise of fentanyl and fentanyl analogs like carfentanil dominating global supply chains, Buprenorphine, the preferred standard of care is no longer effective. This is due to the aggressive affinity of fentanyl to receptors, the lack of tolerance ceiling and the little understood metabolism of next-generation fentanyl analogues, dramatically compounding a problem already at pandemic levels. Ibogaine supply chains have collapsed at the same time that demand is growing exponentially, the firm which dominates the current global ibogaine supply chain will reap around $1.4M/mo profit serving the current global demand. One of the largest African Ibogaine brokers has seen a 30x increase in sales from 2017 to 2019. With Universal Ibogaine taking Ibogaine through the Canadian clinical process and the grassroots support from Health Canada, Ibogaine will be the first psychedelic approach available to consumers. While Ibogaine is a scheduled drug in the US and some European jurisdictions, it is not scheduled in Canada and the majority of the global market. Multiple Ibogaine documentaries are in filming, including actors such as Johnny Depp, as this is an education driven industry, we should expect exponential growth to accelerate in 2020.
Support Industries:
Industries supporting the growth of psychedelics will be a large part of the future landscape as was seen in the cannabis sector. A psychedelic business support network including education, conferences, business analysis and financing have already cropped up commercially. In Q3 2019 the renowned Cambridge House International Extraordinary Future conference created a panel for psychedelic opportunities. Two weeks before the conference there was a frantic rush and the majority of relevant psychedelic players were represented last minute in the panel discussion including: Compass Pathways, FieldTrip Ventures, Mind Medicine, Johns Hopkins, Dennis McKenna and ThinkMyco. Multiple psychedelic investment funds are forming alongside of industry press, consulting groups and other support interests. In Q3 2019, Dr. Matthew Thompson of Johns Hopkins and Dr. Charles Nichols of LSU/Eleusis Benefit Corporation helped organize the inaugural conference for the new journal called International Society for Research on Psychedelics in its home of New Orleans. Over 100 international scientists from top universities were represented, with the conference having to turn down many late registrations. Dr. Rolland Griffiths, head of the Johns Hopkins Psychedelic Research Center said "This was the best scientific conference I have been to in my entire career.".
Sub-perceptual dosing:
Microdosing was popularized by Silicon Valley, catalyzing the resurgence of the psychedelic industry but microdosing is a protocol built on unsound fundamentals. Research shows that the therapeutic effects of psychedelics are highly dose dependant, higher doses lead to better therapeutic effects. The microdosing supply chain model has excellent returns, with a pound of mushrooms costing less than 5$/lb to produce which provides around 1200x microdoses. When dosages increase past the perception threshold, the potential for adverse events such as bad trips exponentially increases. The ideal dosage seems to be just under perceptual threshold where you can still go about your day, but much higher than a microdose. This is industry standard with seratonergic pharmaceuticals, an example being the diet drug Belvique, which is closely related to psilocybin, dosed at the perceptual threshold for maximum effectiveness. Belvique can cause psilocybin like hallucinations if 4 tablets are taken as it is a seratonergic drug. High doses of psilocybin require a clinical infrastructure and in-patient experience, dramatically increasing costs and logistics overheads. Sub-perceptual dosed pharmaceuticals will be available for out-patient and take home treatment and in many cases may be as effective as full blown psychedelic experiences. Mind Medicine, ThinkMyco and Eleusis Benefit Corporation are leading the charge in sub-perceptual therapeutics.
Next Generation Drug Development:
Mind Medicine is taking the approach of engineering the hallucinations out of the therapeutic experience by removing parts of the molecule and are moving their drug, 18-MC through the clinical process. This is the ultimate high risk/high reward play in the psychedelic industry. 18-MC is modified which also changes a variety of important receptor binding effects. The modified receptors include the receptors responsible for growth factor release, cognitive effects, cardiac effects and the opioid system coupled NMDA receptors. Since there is no data on the human use of 18-MC in opioid addicts, significant capital must be deployed before it is even known if 18-MC is as efficient as the parent molecule Ibogaine for treating opioid addiction, the ability to treat addiction in an out-patient setting with no cardiac toxicity - 18-MC will be the megablockbuster all investors in the neurogenic space are waiting for. ThinkMyco, Gilgamesh, Mind Medicine and Eleusis Benefit Corporation are leading the field in next generation drug development.
Lateral Drug Development:
While psychedelics address a $373B neurogenics market, companies such as Eleusis Benefit Corporation are showing they can address other unmet clinical needs such as chronic inflammatory disease. Eleusis is developing new psychedelic compounds for the treatment of inflammation, specifically within ophthalmology, and has recently published Phase I trial results revealing the safety and tolerability of low dose LSD in healthy older adults, with the intention of evaluating low dose LSD as a disease modifying therapy in Alzheimer's disease. Eleusis Benefit Corporation looks poised to cannibalize the $3B steroid therapeutic market. Not yet published research is showing Ibogaines potential as a therapeutic to treat sleep disorders. Johns Hopkins is currently reviewing the application of psychedelics in pulling patients from comas and vegetative states. The original pre-Mind Medicine clinical trials on the Ibogaine derivative 18-MC showed promise in treating Leishmania infection. BOL148, an inactive form of LSD, originally the placebo in human clinical LSD research, was found to in some cases to permanently terminate cluster headaches after a few doses and is being publicly demanded from the cluster headache community. These are the earliest days of understanding the application of psychedelic derived chemistry as new therapeutic approaches.
Public Health Engagement:
Looking at recently released data representing North American, working class adults, methamphetamine and fentanyl use is growing enormously and consistently. Linear regression of growth rates over the last 5 years projects a 380%+ increase in Fentanyl usage the next 15 years, with Methamphetamine projected at a 475%+ increase. This is concerning as there are more than a million high quality data points over 5 years and an R2 value of 90%+ which paints of picture of statistical certainty. This shows that the opioid crisis has moved from a lift caused by supply side drivers to an organically growing demand side driven pandemic fueled secondarily by histories cheapest and most available synthetic drugs. With $100B+ in fines projected for the opioid crisis in the next few years, state jurisdictions will shortly receive an enormous amount of cash that will be legally obligated to flow into anti-addiction spending. Due to poor outcomes and non-scalable approaches around advanced public health programs, there will be a flurry of legislature to address how to spend the $100B+ anti-addiction warchest. Players like Universal Ibogaine who have proven clinical models, can deploy infrastructure and guarantee statistically better outcomes will receive unprecedented amounts of non-dilutive government funding and will be the first to benefit from Decriminalization/Medicalization in the North American market. Players that can come to the table now at the state level and propose medicalization legislature as well as profitable clinical infrastructure with proven outcomes, could monopolize the entire US market. FieldTrip Ventures is developing Psilocybin clinical infrastructure while Universal Ibogaine is deploying proven clinical infrastructure already developed and proven by Clear Sky Recovery, the leading Ibogaine clinical experts with thousands of successful detox procedures and no critical adverse events.
Closing:
Like any emerging industry, there are challenges and growing pains but the blue-sky upside is unparalleled. "Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight." Due to changes in public opinion, a mental health and addiction pandemic as well as enormous movements of liquid cash, this sector is poised to explode in 2020.
Additional information requests: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
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TLJ Rewrite, Secret of the Whills Part 2

With Rey and Luke, we see Rey go through training; tossing a heavy branch into the air and letting it fall so she can slice it apart with her lightsaber, running a training course through the trees and ponds, learning to swim, and sparring with other young Jedi, but it beaten by one, simply stunned as the lightsabers are on a lower setting when sparring. Katooni and Huyang are impressed, but Luke remains cryptic. Huyang speaks with Luke about his fear, the droid tells Luke that fear is natural and something every Jedi must overcome, often more than once. Rey walks off and finds herself in front of the Great Tree and wanders in, finding ancient Sacred Texts that detail the history of the Jedi as well as a Piece of the Life Force Conduit. She also finds artwork of three Mysterious Figures that intrigue her, feeling something eerily familiar about the dark one. Luke catches her but is not angry. She asks Luke about her findings and he tells her that that the relic is simply an ancient artifact from the first Jedi-Sith war and that she will discover who the painted figures are very soon. Rey says the dark one feels familiar and Luke says "He should. You've met him." Luke goes off to be on his own in the cliff-root overlooking the sea and is joined by Yoda's Force Ghost, who tells Luke that he cannot protect Rey from the truth for much longer, and Luke sadly admits he's right and remarks he now understands how Yoda and Obi-Wan felt and why they tried to hide the truth from him. Anakin's ghost appears and admits he's failed to reason with Jacen,and that Rey must be prepared to face him soon. Luke swears to do all he can to face the coming confrontation.
Snoke's ship arrives over Felucia and after having Caedus sense her, they land on the planet. They are attacked by the Jungle Felucian Warriors, but the natives are no match for Caedus, the Praetorian Guards or the Dark Troopers. Shaak Ti, riding a Bull Rancor, attacks. Caedus takes on the fierce beast and manages to kill it before confronting Shaak Ti, remembering her from before Snoke. Snoke is attacked by some warriors, but he easily kills them all, seemingly sucking their life force out. Shaak Ti tells Caedus he can turn away from the Dark Side, she once thought Anakin was beyond redemption, but his betrayal of the Emperor showed that everyone is capable of love and compassion, which infuriates Caedus. They fight, observed by Snoke and the Praetorian Guards. Maris comes out of hiding and tries to help, but Caedus manages to fight them both off. Shaak Ti tries to reason with Caedus, saying 'No matter what Anakin did, his intentions were for love, his family, fo those he loved. What do you fight for, boy?'. Caedus cuts down a bizarre alien tree, pinning Maris under the branches while fighting Shaak Ti up a huge alien tree. She shouts for Maris to run as she destroys Caedus' mask, only for him to stab her in the chest. She scolds him as she dies, 'Foolish boy...you may not be a Sith yet, but Snoke will betray you just as Palpatine betrayed his pawns...' She then lets herself fall into a dark pit, becoming one with the Force. Maris tries to get away but is captured by the Praetorian Guards and is tortured by Snoke and Caedus until she gives up the location of the first part of the Conduit and is then taken prisoner. Snoke and Caedus seize it and head for Mustafar.
At the Hosnian Prime, Leia, Holdo, Fet'lya, Statura and the Jedi settle the alliance with Viscount Vane and the other representatives of other worlds. Leia hopes this will encourage other neutral worlds to stand up to the New Order and join the Republic in the war effort and she and her cohorts see their new allies off. Starstone and K'Kruhk discover C.J. and Amber have joined Black Squadron in the outskirts of the city, in one of the canyons, to help deal with a fire that broke out and are proud of their Padawan's initiative. Above the worlds, Ackbar watches their new allies take leave, just as about 20 New Order ships, including the Finalizer, emerge from Hyperspace, spewing out dozens of ships, landing craft, Tie Fighters, Blitz Fighters and many other such craft. Shocked, but on guard, Ackbar orders all ships to move into defensive positions and send out attack craft, but they cannot prevent numerous landing craft and attack ships from getting through, so Ackbar quickly warns those on the ground. C.J., Amber and Black Squadron return to the city in time as heavy lasers begin bombarding the planet surface and ships carpet bomb the city and the area around it. 3PO declares that the shields can hold, but the readings from Admiral Ackbar suggest they could be outnumbered. Leia and Fet'lya take charge, ordering the city control center to announce all citizens to seek shelter and to TRANSFORM the city. Fet'yla orders Holdo to return to her ship to help Ackbar fight the battle in space, but Leia points out that it's too dangerous to travel with all the ships in the sky. Fet'lya agrees and orders all ships to remain grounded until he gives the word. As the New Order ships approach, with the Sith Knight's Personal Starfighters leading the attack, with shuttles and craft carying walkers close behind. One is blasted and the ramp opens, with Phasma leading Jet Troopers and Dark Troopers out into the air via JET PACKS as the ship goes down, but Phasma bravely leads the charge, with ships and flying troops covering the sky. Leia watches the oncoming swarm of enemies as the transformation is complete and the city is now a massive armored fortress with tons of guns firing on the invaders. Fet'lya goes to a console and activates the 'Dazzler Gas Cloud', vents pour out intense streams of burning gas into the air, harmless but shining brightly, overwhelming the vision of the New Order attack craft and causing some to crash in the air or forced to head lower or get out of the way. The Republic Forces take advantage of this, with troops using rockets to damage the ships while others shoot down New Order flying troops or get blasted in return. Leia, 3PO and Holdo take refuge inside as the Jedi help fight off the invaders and Black Squadron take out attackers trying to get inside the city. Leia orders 3PO to go to Connix and send out a distress signal to their allies before the New Order can cut off their communications. Outside, some of the Sith Knights; Kylo Ren, Talon, Ca'dlek, Ochil, Valorum and Trudge all let their droids pilot their ships and drop out into the city, cutting down soldiers and trying to break into the city as heavy armor plating seals off most of the entrances. Kylo Ren and Trudge attack the Jedi, who bravely duel the attackers, with C.J. and Amber being held back by their seniors who duel the Sith pretenders, with K'Kruhk using the Force to lift a pillar to pin Trudge and some troopers down. Talon joins the attack and tries to seduce C.J. before Starstone interrupts and fights the Twi'lek with her Padawan, and Talon proves herself to be a fierce fighter. Statura takes command of the turrets, which open fire on the invaders, blasting some of them down. One ship lands but as the Stormtroopers attack, they are blown away as their ship explodes, but those who survive engage with the Republic soldiers. Holdo gets on her shuttle with D'Arcy and takes off after saying goodbye to Leia. Their ship manages to get through the gas cloud and into the atmosphere. Phasma, after taking out snipers, demands the Sith Knights to get rid of the gas. Kylo Ren agrees and orders the Knights to withdraw from the Jedi, and after escaping they use the Force together to disperse the gas from the sky Black Squadron are mortified by the clearing of the gas, as now the enemy ships have clear shots and can avoid the turrets and they are attacked by the Dark Troopers, but are rescued by the Jedi. Starstone tells the pilots to get to their ships and get into the sky. More ships land with more New Order troops pouring out and attacking. Phasma, Ca'dlek and Ochil attack with more Dark Troopers, the Jedi fight and Phasma is blown away by Nien Nunb with a grenade launcher, but her special armor protects her as Black Squadron gets away, while C.J. and Amber escort the civilians to safety, and along the way they use damaged Speeders to smash into Siege Troopers and Dark Troopers and cut down Exterminator Droids. We see Valorum have the chance to get inside the city and kill civilians, but he lets them go. Meanwhile 3PO and Leia, nearing the city command tower, are informed by Connix that they're being jammed, they can communicate with their ships surrounding the planet but can't communicate with the other planets or beyond, they're essentially cut off unless one of their ships can get beyond the jamming field. They enter the command room where General Idrosian Gawat has held command thus far and welcomes them. They oversee the battle, bidding Black Squadron good luck as they and a plethora of other ships take off and engage the enemy ships or go up into the atmosphere. Below, the city comes under fire by AT-M6s and Crawler Walkers, with armies of Siege Troopers, Stormtroopers, Dark Troopers, Exterminator Droids and Yinchorri Warriors attack, met by Borsk Fet'lya leading legions of Republic Troops with their own vehicles such as tanks, heavy speeders and even newly designed versions of Droidekas. Up above, Holdo's shuttle is attacked and pursued by a Blitz Fighter, which lands some hits on the small craft, but with help from Republic fighters the shuttle lands on Holdo's new capital ship while Ackbar communicates with Hux who commands the assault on board the Finalizer. Ackbar scolds Hux for a brave but foolhardy attack that will only result in a violent stalemate. Hux admits that is a likely outcome, but offers Ackbar the chance to stand down, promising he will treat them fairly, unlike the Imperials of old. Ackbar tells Hux to go to hell and he will not let the Empire rise under a different name and opens fire on the Finalizer, which Hux furiously returns, devastating several Republic ships.
Poe and his team emerge from Hyperspace over Cantonica, a picturesque world of luxury, with floating cruise ships that float off of waterfalls, sports tournaments, casinos, resorts, etc... Getting permission from the strict traffic control, Poe follows Holdo's coordinates and lands the ship in a very small, grungy docking bay on outskirts of Canto Bight, where they are greeted by Den Joln, a streetwise human who has a sketchy air about him but also a sense of experience and that he has been to more worlds than most and has a very bleak view of life. He greets them, telling them Holdo told him of their mission and he will show them the way. He leads them through the underground tunnels, where they chat, Poe asking if he's seen New Order forces on the world and Den confirms that people Holdo has identified as New Order have been spotted recently. Rose is not surprised, seeing as how many of the rich and elite of the galaxy would have much to gain from New Order, though Finn questions what they could have to gain, with Den Joln answering they'd have better tax laws in their favor, cheaper labor, more opportunities for weapons builders, which Poe confirms, but he doubts all the people here would support the New Order, as not everyone is so easily motivated by greed. Den smirks and asks 'You sure about that?'. Finn is intrigued by this as they emerge from the tunnels into the city and Den leads them to a building where Solana, a female Thisspassian and kindly clothes dealer, who gives clothes to the poor of the planet and helps the less fortunate get into the resorts for a short time. Den has her give the group clothes to make them look rich and recognizes the necklace Rose wears from a particular world. Rose admits to Finn she's homesick and wants to be with her family again and Finn sympathizes with her, hoping that his own family is still alive somewhere out there. They get dressed and Den Joln leads them into the city.
On board The Knife, Caedus sees to Maris being secured in a gravity-chamber like Obi-Wan was in Episode 2. She calls him a fool for beliving in Snoke and curses him for betraying the Jedi. Caedus says he doesn't care what she thinks and doesn't even know why they're keeping her alive, other than a small spot of darkness within her. Maris tries to warn him, trying to remind him they were once friends and that for all he has done, she doesn't want to see him die as a pawn for Snoke, but he ignores her. He then goes and speaks with Snoke about what the overlord did to the warriors in the jungle and how the act is a dangerous one that must be done carefully, and that the artifacts they're after can help them pull off the act of absorbing life force energy at a much more significant rate. 'The living force is nourishment, the more one consumes the stronger one becomes. To cheat death, to have eternal life, we must take life. Do you wish to know how to harvest the life force of others?' and Caedus wants to be taught how. Snoke asks him if he truly 'Wants to obtain the power of those who came before you and destroy your grandfather's legacy by resurrecting the Sith by taking your place among those who came before you? Perhaps even taking your place in the Force? Or even the Mortis Gods?' Caedus confirms that he does. Snoke proclaims that with the power they can achieve with the artifact, they can rule the galaxy without armies or fleets or weapons, and asks if Caedus wants that and he confirms that he does again, though hesitantly. Snoke smirks and notes that Caedus fears the possibility of death, that he fears the frailty of human life and bodies, but promises him that with their power, they will transcend the ages and Caedus may one day eclipse Vader as the most powerful force wielder the galaxy has ever known. Caedus remarks he will be the strongest of the Sith, but Snoke says 'You call yourself a Sith? You are a pretender. The Sith were fearless, unrepentant, remorseless. You are very scared. You are haunted by the past...your family and your actions.' Caedus snaps, saying he regrets nothing, but Snoke can tell that deep down, he does have regrets and that until he severs himself from the past, he will be doomed to the same fate as Vader, to abandon true greatness and power, eternal glory for a thing as foolish as love. Caedus says he will do everything to make sure that never comes to be, he will destroy the past, kill it if he has to. Snoke grins.
Rey and Luke sense this, with Luke knowing that Caedus is about to go down a darker and more dangerous path than before. He doesn't know the details but Rey, having heard fragments of the conversation, tells Luke about harvesting life force, which Luke is horrified by. Rey asks Luke why she can sense this better than he can and Luke admits she had a strong bond with Jacen before he turned to the dark side, when two force wielders are related they can feel each other stronger than most especially when they have a strong bond, he had one with Leia but he severed it to conceal himself, but they have reconnected. Rey asks to know more about her past relationship with Jacen Solo when they are interrupted by R2-D2. Luke says that some pirates are attacking the neighboring islands. Rey looks out and sees a fire in the distance, Rey demands they go help, but Luke thinks that it is too risky, as the pirates could get away and reveal their location to the New Order. Disobeying him, she runs off and pilots a boat with another young Jedi. Rey sails across the rough seas and lands, running to the flames only to be surprised by a party of the Lanai Sisters with bonfires. She is confused as Luke, Katooni, R2, Gungi, Huyang and other Jedi arrive. Rey becomes furious over the trick, but Luke explains that it was a test that she failed, she rushed into things without thinking, as such hastiness cost him his hand and Anakin everything, she must stop and think first. Rey sighs and demands to know the truth about what happens, which Luke agrees to, but first they must have fun, while they can. The father and daughter join in the celebration and Rey lightens up. Obi-Wan and Anakin's ghosts watches, with Anakin saying 'Do you think they'll be all right?', to which Obi-Wan says 'Only time will tell, my friend. The future is what they make of it.'
Back on Hosnian Prime, the battle rages, with the New Order troops trying to blast their way into the city, but they cannot make a break, with the Jet Troopers being shot down. Phasma is nearly blasted, but ducks and lets an underling take the blast. Kylo Ren, Valorum and Ochil try to cut their way into the city, only to be met with Droidekas, forcing them away and the entrance is sealed off with ray shields. Phasma demands that they blow their way into the city, as she ducks away from some snipers before killing them. The Yinchorri warriors cut down some Republic troopers and try to force their way into the doorway, only to be blasted away by the turrets from above, while others climb up and destroy the turret, they nearly get in, only to be cut off by the doors closing and some of the aliens in half. Phasma meets up with some Demotroopers, who plant explosives on certain spots for the AT-M6s to hit, causing a massive blast to blow their way in. C.J. and Amber are on the other side, helping to move the wounded, forced to leave the dead behind. C.J. calls for help, so before they can finish setting them up, Borsk Fet'lya leads his elite troops and engage in a intense firefight, forcing Phasma to fight off most of them before flying away and ordering the AT-M6 to fire. Fet'lya and his remaining soldiers retreat, just in time as the AT-M6's fire and they are knocked off their feet by the shock-wave of the explosion. A hole is blown open, so Phasma leads the Siege Troopers and Stormtroopers into the city, but are counted but C.J. and Amber leading soldiers while Leia has power rerouted to seal off that area. The young Jedi fiercly fight back with help from Petro, Ganodi and Zatt, cutting off legs and arms, blocking lasers and forcing Phasma away as the blown open section of the city are sealed off. Ataska leads an intense carpet bombing while also destroying the turrets, but several of her wing-men are blown away by Republic tanks, while others are engaged in intense dogfights, but Ataska's Starfighter wins several dogfights and zips around the city, but a tank with a damaged turrets has a chance to take it out, so K'Kruhk uses the Force to direct the guns and shoot Ataska down, forcing Ataska to bail out. Meanwhile, Leia contacts Holdo, Ackbar and Black Squadron on an encrypted frequency, telling the pilots to get past the communications blackout zone and call to their allies for help. Holdo is busy, but sends some drop ships to distract the New Order. The ships get through the Finalizer defenses, though two of them are destroyed. Those that get in the hangar attack, pouring in and use rockets and thermal detonators to destroy shuttle craft and starfighters, but they are quicklyoverwhelmed and wiped out. Somehow, Hux seems to realize what they're up to and sends multiple Blitz Fighters and Tie Fighters after them. Snap, Kare and Nien Nunb, joined by other pilots, battle the New Order's ship, while Jess and Tallie get outside of jamming range, with Tallie protecting Jess. Jess sends out a signal, while Tallie is attacked by Blitz Fighters, her ship is destroyed, killing her. Jess' ship is hit and she retreats, but her mission is completed. She races through, with ships still on her tail, but she manages to take them out with help from Snap and Kare. Her wings are torn off by G-Forces, but she and her astromech R2-KT, are saved by Snap and Kare, who use cables to harpoon her X-Wing and guide her to a soft landing in a hangar, where she is greeted by 3PO. Leia and Gawat notice Phasma and some of the Sith Knights are moving near the menagerie and Leia improvises a plan and orders them to let them into the menagerie and turn off the lights. Phasma and the Sith Knights notice the doors opening, and while Phasma, Talon and Ca'dlek think it's an obvious trap, but Kylo Ren and Trudge refuse to let such an opportunity slip by, so they lead dozens of troopers into the dark menagerie, going into multiple biomes where they are attacked by a variety of animals, resulting in many troops being devoured or killed or trampled. The Sith Knights and Phasma retreat as a Kryat Dragon bursts out, leading to many animals, including the Vulptex, flooding out into the city. Olee Starstone encounters the same Fleft-Wauf and calms it down before mounting it and riding it into battle, flying and cutting off the wings and guns of ships. Leia watches the chaos intensify and hopes it won't last much longer, Jess and 3PO arrive, the former confirming her message got out, its just a question of who can get here first. They watch as some of the city's defensive guns are blown away by well placed air strikes or fire from the AT-M6's, buildings are blown open as the battle rages on.
Meanwhile on Cantonica, Den Joln bribes an Abednedo valet to let them into the top resort in town, where he claims the hub is under. Inside is a true luxury resort with casinos, bars, dancers, singers, spas, gambling, games and races. Finn is impressed by all around him, but Rose has a rather pessimistic view that Den Joln appreciates. Poe notices Jabba's son Rotta the Hutt mingling with a Falleen from the Black Sun Crime Syndicate and a Neimoidian from the New Trade Federation, which confuses Poe since according to Republic spies these guys are supposed to be bitter rivals. Finn surmises that something big must be going on in order for such enemies to all be here at oncs and not trying to kill each other. Finn plays a random game of dice and wind a handsome amount of credits. As they travel through the resort and see various strange sights such as an operatic Harch, Poe recognizes some smugglers Lando has been associated with and quietly tells Finn and Rose about Lando using smugglers to get more weapons and ammo for the Republic, which Den scoffs at. Poe asks Den if he has a problem with the Republic, and the man says he doesn't really care one way or the other for either the Republic or the New Order. He claims there really isn't much of a difference, only minor and superficial differences of philosophy, he claims that he doesn't think anything will ever truly change, which Poe and Finn take issue with, claiming that the Republic are trying to stop the iron grip of a tyrannical regime from ruling the galaxy and letting the free people live in peace, which Den scoffs at as foolish optimism. To make a point he shows the three the races, where rich and poor alike bet on Pod Racers as they race around the city, coast line and forest and the Fathiers, large horse-like creatures that race around tracks. Den points out that people on both sides come to bet on the races, so he feels it means morality or allegiances doesn't really matter compared to one's own will and freedom, which Finn finds a distasteful view. Rose remarks about how her friend used to raise the Fathiers and remembers how Paige used to love riding them. Finn brings up how Rose and her sister escaped a world conquered by the New Order and helped to fight them, they wouldn't need to do that if the New Order and Republic were the same thing, but Den points out that the Republic also let the New Order grow and become a threat, not doing anything until it was too late, because they were too selfish and greedy. The winner of the race is congratulated by Purvile, the strange, eccentric Mikkian owner of the resort who practically rules over the city with his money. Purvile goes down and meets up with General Pryde, telling him the meeting will begin soon.
It's twilight on Hosnian Prime, the main wall around the city has been destroyed and Crawler Walkers and the two remaining AT-M6s enter the city, rising up on their hind-legs and crushing the walls. A bridge where rocket gunners and Droidekas fire at them are blasted away as the walkers stomp into the city. Phasma is attacked by an Acklay but manages to kill it before looking up at the command tower and orders the ships to attack. Leia and some of those in the tower manage to escape via the elevator before the top is obliterated. A Sando Aqua Monster attacks one of the AT-M6s and manages to destroy it, though it is killed via a deadly laser blowing through its torso, they fall, crushing those beneath them. As the battle rages, a Rancor and the Kryat Dragon begin to battle for dominance, with the little Vulptex doing its best to avoid being killed. The remaining AT-M6 blasts open an entrance, so Phasma and Kylo Ren lead a charge into the interior of the fortress. Olee Starstone, riding the Fleft-Wauf with K'Kruhk, fly down and attack, cutting down the troops. K'Kruhk jumps off and confronts Kylo Ren, revealing they were once master and apprentice. Kylo Ren savagely attacks and a duel begins, with Amber watching her master fight the Fallen Jedi. When K'Kruhk gains the upper hand, Ochil and Trudge join in the fight so Amber jumps into the fray, helping her master fight them off while Olee Starstone and C.J. duel Talon and Valorum. Up in space, Maz Kanata's ship comes out of hyperspace and Ackbar sends them down to help with the battle in the city. K'Kruhk and Amber are nearly defeated but K'Kruhk attacks fiercely, cutting off Ochil's hand and cutting off Trudge's head, only to be impaled by behind by Kylo Ren, but before he falls he slams him blade into the dark sider, sending him flying down an embankment. Valorum orders Talon and Ochil to retreat, looking back at Amber as she comforts her dying master, Starstone looks at Valorum and sees regret in his eyes. K'Kruhk bids his goodbye to his Padawan and his friends as he becomes one with the Force. Dark Troopers surround the three Jedi, only for Maz's ship to appear, blasting them away. The pirates help the Republic fight as the Rancor and Kryat Dragon kill each other. Starstone leads the Padawans to safety, but Amber stops to get the Vulptex, which was hiding under a ruined tank. They meet up with Fet'lya, who leads them to safety before he rejoins his troops to attack yet again, but he cannot catch the Sith Knights in time as they retreat.
Meanwhile Den brings the group down where young stable workers are looking after the Fathiers, they agree to show them a secret way through the resort to the underground chambers in exchange for riches, and Finn uses the money he won to pay them. Den leads them through the tunnels and Maintenance tubes. As they crawl through, Den explains that the most servants on Cantonica are payed criminally low rate due to Purvile's greed so they are easy to bribe. Finn hopes that Purvile is in league with the New Order so they can bring him to justice. The tubes eventually lead them to view an extravagant conference room where Purvile and several members of the Canto Bight elite are meeting with; Rotta the Hutt representing the remaining Hutt Clans, the Black Sun, the New Trade Federation, the new Queen of Zygerrian Slave Traders, Sugi Weapons Dealer, King Parana Blanc of Quarzite, a Yinchorri Warlord, a Trandoshan Warlord, representatives of the Jabiim Independents, a Dug Crime Lord, Eriadu Governors, a Jabolgian Crime Boss, a Weequay Aristocrat, aliens from Byss, and representatives of the Flesh Mongers, Fondor Imperialists and Brentall IV. Pryde arrives, thanking them all for coming. Despite Den's insistence they move before they're noticed, Finn and Poe demand to stay and see what the meeting is about and have BB-8 record it. Pryde reveals this is to finalize and sign a treaty welcoming them all to the New Order, with the Zygerrians bringing slaves to the New Order and Canto Bight, Purvile reveals that they've all been donating or even embezzling funds to the New Order to help them finance their war machines and a top secret weapon, which they are all interested in seeing. Pryde reveals he's been permitted to show them. He tells them that the weapon was designed by Bevel Lemelisk, chief designer of the second Death Star, who presented it to Palpatine after the destruction of the original Death Star. This weapon is a step beyond the Death Star and can destroy multiple planets with multiple deadly beams and activates a massive hologram of STARKILLER BASE, which shocks his allies and horrifies our heroes. He reveals it was once the holy Jedi world Ilum, but now it will be the ultimate weapon to destroy them once and for all. As the New Order allies eagerly sign the treaty, the group continues with the mission, with Poe grilling Finn if he had any knowledge of the Starkiller and he denies with, nothing but rumors of some super weapon, but nothing specific. Poe believes his friend and apologizes for doubting him before they carry on.
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