Matched Betting Calculator - Bonus Money

Should I buy into the stock market now or pay down my mortgage? (need math help!)

TL;DR: I have an extra $20k per month that I usually put into a brokerage account, but my dad (a retired accountant) thinks that money will do better in the short term (1-2 years) going towards paying down the principal on my mortgage. Who is right?
I've been a redditor for many years, but given that others know my main account, I plan on using this account on /personalfinance so my friends and family don't have the full details of my financial information.
So when I first got a mortgage last year, I got a great deal using a physician loan program: 2.75%, 15 year, no PMI. Principal was about $400k on the loan after my down payment. Conventional wisdom at that time (this was in the spring) was that I should pay the minimum payments on the loan and not pay any additional towards the principal because my money could do better than 2.75%. Any extra money I made that I didn't need should go towards my brokerage account.
Now, with the market downturn, my father (a retired accountant) has suggested that instead of putting my extra money towards my brokerage account, I should sink it into the house. His thoughts are:
  1. With the market in a decline, betting on the house, which gives me a guaranteed 2.75% "return" is a safer bet than betting on the stock market to be able to give me anywhere close to that. (My 403(b) and SEP are all down about 30% right now, but since I don't need that money for another 30 years, it doesn't really matter--it'll eventually come up in the long run)
  2. If the world is about to come to an end and/or I lose my job, I'll at least not have to worry about a roof over my head.
I know everyone says just to continue to throw money into the stock market, but I haven't found a good calculation as to why that's better than building up some cash reserves, and waiting for a further drop before continuing to invest. I'm not talking about trying to time for the bottom, but just delaying putting money in for a few months. Everyone keeps repeating the worn out sayings "don't try to catch a falling knife" or "time in the market beats timing the market" but no sources are ever cited when people reply with those quotes.
Here is my situation:
Income: Guaranteed a minimum number of hours on a 1099 contract of $26,500 per month. In the event I don't get my minimum number of hours, I still get paid. I've been here about a year now, and we're always offering bonuses or overtime. I don't see this changing anytime soon. My lowest month was $35,000 so let's use that as a conservative measure of my monthly income. I earn this on a 1099. I also have a W-2 part time job for my health insurance, 403(b) match, etc, but that income is negligible (I pick up the minimum number of hours - average of 5 hrs/wk - to keep benefits and that's it--more than half my check goes to taxes and benefits). Assume (conservatively) $35,000 per month of income.
Emergency Fund: Funded fully in a HYSA for 6 months with no lifestyle changes, plus an extra $10k for emergency home repairs. Could probably stretch to over a year if I cut back on eating out, and other discretionary items. (Read: I should be OK even if something bad happens.)
Expenses: Mortgage is $3500 per month, Utilities are $200, Things that go on credit card (rewards card, I pay off in full every month) are $2200 per month. I know, not a conventional budget, but it's easiest for me to categorize it this way and I'm not really looking for help in cutting down spending so I didn't figure groceries vs gas vs discretionary was important for this post. My biggest expense is setting aside money for taxes - I estimate at about 25% for this year, so ~$8750 per month. Total: ~$15,000 per month.
If you're detail oriented, you'll note that I didn't include my SEP contributions in there. They come from my annual bonuses (not included in income) which works out to almost exactly what the max contribution is.
This leaves me $20,000 per month that I put into my brokerage account. I have a small "play money account" where I do some day trading on my days off and try to beat the market (I usually end up doing a lot of work and just breaking even, but it forces me to do research and learn about investing--I'm still very new to this) and the rest goes in a long term account.
So, over the course of 6 months, I could pay off an extra $120k in principal of the house. Should I do it? Or should I throw this money into the market? My dad and I tried to do the math but came up with wildly different answers, but both pointed towards putting money toward the house. Anyone else want to help take a stab at this?
submitted by monkeymedic2020 to personalfinance [link] [comments]

I’m 40 years old, live in Queens, NY, and make $80,000 a year as a Billing Supervisor

Apologies in advance for the wordiness of this. I’m wordy. *shrug* I also don’t really talk about what I do on a day to day basis at work, as I don’t want to get too specific. Billing Supervisor is only one part of my responsibilities, but to use my actual title would identify me almost immediately.
Income:
Salary - $80,000. This is my salary only, I am not eligible for a bonus.
Side Income - About $5,000 a year. I proctor standardized tests a few times a year. This number also includes cash back from Ebates/Rakuten (paid out 4x/year), credit card rewards, mileage reimbursements, and cash incentives from work for wellness.
Paycheck Amount (twice a month, after taxes & deductions listed below) - $1,930. This should go up after I move, when I will no longer have to pay NYC income tax (3%). Not sure what the net effect will be on my check yet. Probably small, but always welcome. Income from side hustles isn’t consistent enough to include on an ongoing basis. I treat all of that like bonuses.
Assets:
401k - $18,500. I contribute 10% of my salary pre-tax, and my company matches 4%. I’m invested in a target date fund (2040, I think?), and am currently 50% vested in the match. I’ll be fully vested in a year and a half. I’m wayyyyy behind on retirement, but making a concerted effort to catch up as best as I can.
Savings - $30k. This is spread between a few accounts, nothing earning much interest right now. I just purchased an apartment right outside NYC, and am doing some renovations, which this money will be spent on. Once I finalize all the costs, I’ll be looking to open a HYSA for the remainder. If there is one. Which there probably will not be. *cries*
Checking Balance - $8k. Much higher than usual due to recent apartment purchase. Lots of money has been moving in and out (mostly out #sadface). I usually keep about $1,000 in here and only use it for bills, I don’t use my debit card for anything anymore.
Equity - $40k. This is an estimate, based on what I put down on my apartment. Once my renovation is done, I’ll ask my broker to informally re-asses the value.
Debt:
Mortgage - $154,600. This is braaaaaaand spanking new. I won’t make my first payment until November 1.
Student Loan - $3,880. Almost paid off. These make me mad. I’ve been paying them off for years but don’t have a degree to show for it. I do plan to go back when life calms down a little (lol! famous last words), and I’ll probably have to take out more loans but hopefully not too much.
Car Loan - $12kish. My car is 4 years old and in great condition. I bought it 2 years ago, and have a few more years on the loan. No plans to trade it in anytime soon, although I may, if I have any money left after the reno, throw a chunk to this loan and refinance to get the interest down a touch.
Credit Cards - $0. No credit card debt….for now. I currently run all expenses that I can through a rewards card and pay it off in full every month. I am going to try not to incur debt during the reno process, but I find it unlikely that it’ll work out that way.
Monthly Expenses:
Rent - $1,800 for a large one bedroom, I live alone. After the reno, I will move into the apartment I just purchased which is a two bedroom with a terrace. My combined mortgage/maintenance (like HOA) payment will be around $1785, before I add any extra payments (which I do plan on doing). Maintenance will include property taxes, heat & hot water. The last month I will pay rent is October, and the first month I will pay mortgage/maintenance is November.
Utilities (Gas & Electric) - $125, this is what I budget every month. Comes in much lower in the non-summer months, and around that or a little above when I have the ACs in. My landlord pays for heat & hot water. No idea what to expect for gas & electric for the new place, but I am responsible for the same utilities.
Renters Insurance - $13.50. This will be cancelled once I move. I pre-paid my first year of homeowners insurance upfront, and will likely cash flow this for the first few years. It was $352.
Internet - $60.36. This will be $62.48 after I move, for a slightly faster plan. Since I work from home a lot and stream all of my TV, I am interested to see if this is better. Different provider as well, so it won’t be an apples to apples comparison. I’ll actually start paying for internet at the new apartment this month, I wanted to get it set up early, so I can work from there if needed during the renovation.
Gas (Car) - $70 or so. This is what I budget. I try to get gas in NJ whenever possible, as it’s a lot cheaper. When I travel to our Philadelphia office, I am reimbursed for mileage which more than covers the gas. However, I like to include it as a budget line item so I can treat the reimbursement as bonus money.
Hulu - $5.99. I mooch off a friend’s Netflix, and use my mom’s cable log in for everything else via Roku. I manage her account for her and claim this as my admin fee lol. Prime is listed below in annual expenses.
Cell Phone - $95. On a family plan with my mom and grandpa. Account is in mom’s name but I manage this as well. The $95 is for my portion of the bill and my phone payment. My phone will be paid off in December, and I’ll probably get a new one soon thereafter because I like shiny things. Last time I paid a phone off, I dropped the insurance coverage (since if anything happened to the phone I’d just get a new one, and my monthly responsibility was down to like $55. I’d like to see if I can manage to settle for my two year old iPhone for a few months to save that cash but I have impulse control issues when it comes to shopping sometimes, as you’ll see).
Medical, Dental & Vision Insurance - $181.22. Deducted from my paycheck pre-tax, $90.61 a check.
Transit - $130. Deducted from my paycheck pre-tax, I pay $65 per check. I just requested an increase for this to $90 a check (after I move, my commuting costs will go up significantly. I am trying to adjust slowly to the increase, but not sure when it’ll go into effect in my check). After I move, I will increase to $125 a paycheck. My train ticket will be $246, and I will also need to fill a MetroCard, I will do so with cash. How often I’ll have to fill depends on how many days I am in the office (usually 2-3 a week, I work from home 1-2 days and go to our other office often).
401k - $666.66
Hair Color - $50. I have dark hair, and it’s going grey rapidly. The grey rudely sparkles in the sun, so I get my roots done every month. I go to a cosmetology school, and they always do a great job. The service costs me $30, and I tip $20.
iCloud Storage - $2.99. 200GB storage plan. I started running out of room on my phone a few years ago and opted for this plan. Haven’t run out of room since. Not sure if I still need it, as my phone has more memory now, but it’s cheap so it’s fine.
Car Payment - $265.98
Car Insurance - $235.72. This should change a little after I move, hopefully go down. I know it seems like a lot but welcome to NYC. This is actually quite good. It’s half the price of what any other company quotes me. I have a completely clean license, and take the online 5 hour course for the discount on liability every 3 years, so there’s really nothing I can do to lower it significantly except relocate, which isn’t really an option.
Student Loan - $130.95. One of my loans is scheduled to be paid off in a few months, and this will drop to about $80.
Gym Membership - $0, I don’t currently belong to a gym but there’s one near my new apartment that I am going to check out after I move, it’s around $40 a month.
Not monthly, but recurring expenses:
Therapy - $30 is my co-pay for a session, and I usually go every other week. I’ve met my out of pocket max for the year so I don’t have to pay any more co-pays this year.
Prescriptions – About $35 every 3 months for a 90 day supply of 2 different meds. Same note, I don’t have to pay for these for the rest of the year. And yes, I’ll be stocking up towards the end lol.
Freshly meal subscription - $60 for 6 meals when I choose to order. I have an overabundance in my freezer right now, so I won’t be ordering for a while. I usually get this every 6-8 weeks.
Beachbody on Demand - I am on the every 6 months plan, so I pay $59 twice a year. After I move, if I get into a good groove with the new gym I want to try out, I may cancel this. I’m not currently using it, but I don’t mind paying for it to keep the access for now.
Annual Expenses:
Amazon Prime - $119
Car Inspection/Registration - $95. Car registration is $136.50 every other year, and inspection is $27 per year. I tend to just cash flow this instead of putting it aside in advance. My dealer has given me a free inspection for the last 2 years.
I might be forgetting some!
Not budgeted:
Medical – I handle these as they come up. Thankfully I have good insurance, and usually just have to worry about a co-pay. I see a lot of specialists, so that adds up throughout the year. I’ll be opting into the FSA next year to set money aside to cover these.
Non-Retirement Savings – Once I am done with the reno and have a better idea of what my new monthly costs are, I’ll re-jigger my budget to plan for savings.
Charitable Giving – same as above. Everything right now is done on an ad hoc basis.
Day One (Monday):
5:45 am – Up super early. Every other Monday, I go to the Philadelphia office. I drive there, so I can do it on my own schedule (and get reimbursed for mileage!), but to beat traffic, I have to leave at 6am. I make myself a large cup of tea in my travel mug and get dressed (I shower at night so my morning routine is suuuuper abbreviated: take thyroid and allergy meds, get dressed in clothes laid out the night before, pee, brush teeth, eye cream). I remember that I need to reload my Starbucks card, so I pop over to the computer while I am waiting for the tea to cool off a little before lidding it and leaving. I purchase gift cards via Raise, for a small discount. I buy a $50 gift card for $46.42, and earn 46 cents from Ebates which will be added to my account and paid out in November. $46.42
7:35 am – My dummy light comes on when I’m about 12 miles from my exit on the turnpike. Thankfully I make it to my preferred gas station (although I’m pretty sure I coast in on fumes). Hopefully this fill-up will last me til my next trip to Philly. $32
8:15am – I get to the parking lot, park my car (will pay when I leave), and place a mobile order from the Starbucks down the street for a Venti London Fog latte (I don’t drink any coffee, just tea), egg white egg bites, a bottle of water, and a smoked turkey protein box for lunch. I like to get my lunch in the morning so I don’t have to find time to go get something. I don’t usually eat lunch, but because my days in Philly start so early, I’ll starve if I skip it. $20.66 from my pre-loaded Starbucks card (expensed)
9:00am – I check my toll tag account, and decide to load money onto it a little early. I usually load $75 every paycheck, which covers the $52 in round trip tolls for my trips to Philly (reimbursed), and $25 of personal usage. Since I closed on my apartment, I’ve been using the toll tag more (it’s a bridge away, which is $12 round trip). This is just temporary, and I’ll use it a lot less for personal trips after moving. They just raised my automatic replenishment threshold and amount, so I keep a close eye on it and try to refill it manually. $75
11:30 am – After an obscene amount of tea, I run to the Macy’s downstairs to return some dresses. I ordered 3 dresses for my holiday party a few weeks ago. I know it’s freakishly early, but I have trouble finding things that fit me properly, so I want to start looking early. Two of the three didn’t fit, so back they go. The third fits, but don’t know if I’ll go with that one or something else yet. $279.27 gets refunded back to my credit card, and for some reason I also get $4 back in cash. OK. I wander through the dress section to see if anything catches my eye. I find something on clearance that’s meh, but when I try it on, it’s like 3 sizes too big. I didn’t love it, but for $50, worth giving it a shot. It was sequined, so it was itchy and heavy. Kinda glad. When I get back upstairs, I calculate what the remaining balance on my credit card is before what I spent today, and I schedule that amount for payment.
12:30 pm – I get my second contractor quote – this is the guy I clicked with and want to use. I’ll assign him an initial since he will probably feature a lot in my diary this week – R. It’s painful, $23k, but there’s a lot in here that I won’t do. It’s itemized, so I can remove items I don’t want. I email him a few questions, and he responds quickly, letting me know that a $5k line item isn’t truly necessary but he included pricing since I asked him to. I convert his quote into my budget spreadsheet so I can fiddle with the individual components and decide what I want to remove. Nerd. I live and die in Excel lol.
1:30 pm – While my computer is downloading a huge update package, I book my flight ($443.90) and car rental (155.39) for an upcoming long weekend in LA. I use points for one way, and pay for the other way. I upgrade my seats to extra leg room both ways, because #treatyoself (this is probably the last time I’ll travel for a few months). I pre-pay for the car rental, because it saves like $40. I go through Ebates for this and get an email later that I’ll get $4.26 added to my account. $599.29
4:00 pm – I wrap up and head out for the day. When I’m in this office, I usually leave at 5 or so, but I have a light day and want to stop by a few stores on my way home without getting home at 9pm. I pay for parking ($20.76 expensed), and out of the city approximately 7 minutes later. Yay for no traffic yet!
4:30 pm – I hit a few stores before settling into the highway portion of my drive. One of them is Home Depot, and I get 4 copies of one of my new keys. I find out that my top lock can only be copied by a locksmith. My building’s front door key can only be copied by my super, I left him a message earlier in the day asking him to make me 4 copies for when I see him on Friday. $11.09
6:15 pm – I stop at my usual rest area along the route home, pee, and get another London Fog latte and some madeleines ($8.05 expensed). I stop at one last store to look at some appliances and am thoroughly disappointed. I get back on the road, and am home around 8. Round trip tolls for the day are $52.24, expensed. My landlord’s kids are practicing the piano when I come in. *deep cleansing breaths* only 2 months to go. (No hate on the kids, I think it’s great that they play the piano, and are well rounded. It’s just that the sound of anyone practicing an instrument is the worst. I’ve asked my landlord if there’s any way we can soundproof a little better, and he dismissed it. Now he makes jokes about me not liking their playing. Don’t take it personally dude, my favorite musician could be practicing and I’d eventually tell him to go away as well if the sound came through my living room floor while I was trying to decompress from a day at work…)
9:15 pm – After catching up on emails that came in since I left the office a few hours ago, and browsing online for light fixtures (#somuchshopping kill me now), I make a sad but delicious dinner of Lean Pockets and head over to the couch for the season finale of The Hills. I am unreasonably annoyed that this week it started at 9, not 10, and I’ve missed the first 15 minutes. While I watch, I browse through some different shopping sites on my phone, and find one of the too small dresses I returned earlier today at another store in a bigger size. It’s more expensive, of course. I leave the page open to think about it. During the show, I also get the last contractor bid I’m waiting on (even though I’m 99% sure I’m going with R, I want to review all the bids before making the actual decision). IT’S FORTY ONE FUCKING THOUSAND DOLLARS. Not including any materials. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I had a feeling that one was going to come in high but this is ridiculous. I don’t even look at the itemizations, because there’s no way this bid can ever come into line with my budget. I text E, the friend who recommended R, and tell him I’m going with his bid, but ask him to not let R know until I do tomorrow. I stop by the computer after the episode to update this entry and see an email that my expenses from my last Philly trip have been processed and will be in my account on Wednesday. Yay! I take a quick shower, brush my teeth and do my nighttime skincare routine before bed - - St Ives Apricot Scrub, Clinique Mild Liquid Facial Soap, Clinique Exfoliating Lotion 1.0, Khiel's Midnight Recovery Eye Cream, Neutrogena Rapid Wrinkle Repair with retinol, Khiel's Midnight Recovery serum mixed into the first of two layers of Clinique DDML. In the winter, I bump it up to 3-4 layers depending on how dry my skin feels. I crash into bed around 11:30, after setting up my travel mug for tomorrow's tea and laying out my clothes.
Daily Total – 763.80 OUCH
Day Two (Tuesday)
8:30 am – I slept like total shit. Woke up around 2am, and then wasn't really able to get back to sleep. You ever had one of those nights where your body is beyond overtired and your mind is racing? Ugh. Alarm goes off at 8:30, and I get up to put the tea kettle on to boil, then lay back down while I wait for it to boil. Once it does boil, I pour the water, get dressed (same basic outfit as usual - our office is very casual. For most of the summer, it's been sleeveless top, jeans and sandals), pee, meds, brush teeth, eye cream. Check email quickly before heading out. I try not to leave before 9:15, as the subways are really crowded before then. My hours are super flexible. As long as I'm the office before I have any meetings, it's all good (and people generally don't put meetings on the calendar before 10). I put in a lot of time at home, as well. I finish making my tea (black tea with Splenda & half and half), grab my lunch bag with the food I prepped for the week the other day, toss my computer into my purse, and head out the door. My commute is either a short bus ride or medium walk to a 25 minute train ride. This will also change after I move. Thankfully the bus is a stop away when I get outside, so I take the bus to the train ($2.75 on my pre-paid card, that is funded using my pre-tax transit account). There's a free transfer to the subway. I make a mental note to refill my card on the way home. I don't do the unlimited MetroCard, I don't take the train often enough for it to be worth it.
12:00pm - A coworker needs to vent so we go up to the in house coffee bar - they make killer drinks for $1. Unfortunately, my tea latte is made incorrectly, and it has coffee as the base. Coffee, Earl Grey tea, steamed milk, and sugar free vanilla are not the combo I wanted. Blech. I make a valiant attempt but I just can't do it. I decide to eat late (even by my standards) breakfast. Every week, I make egg scramble kits (bacon, cheese and eggs) - they're an adaptation of those Just Crack an Egg things you can buy in Target but way cheaper. I tend to eat this around 11:30, skip lunch because I'm not hungry, have a late afternoon snack, and then have dinner. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I also talk to R, the contractor and accept his proposal. We talk next steps, and set a meeting for Friday at the apartment to nail down a few last details. $1
3:30 pm - I head to the kitchen to grab my breakfast for tomorrow (taking it home because I am going to work remotely), and come across leftover pizza. I am not hungry, but you bet your ass I eat the pizza. I pack up and leave a little early, deciding to work from home for the rest of the day. Before I get on the train, I stop at a nearby locksmith to copy the other keys I mentioned previously, and I also buy small key rings. $27.65
3:45 pm – On my way into the subway, I load $60 onto my MetroCard from my transit account (not counted since this money is deducted from my paycheck pre-tax. I’ve already “paid” for it.)
4:30 pm - I walk home from the train, and pass my ex's car parked along the way. It's def his, as it's pretty distinctive. Yay. Now I am going to suffer the temptation to text him for the rest of the evening. I stop at the grocery store and buy eggs, milk and craisins. I get home and get back online for a little while. I IM with some coworkers, check some emails, and call it a night. I'll probably go back online later on. I watch the first 15 minutes of The Hills that I missed last night, then collapse on the couch and put on Supernatural, which I finally started binging. $10.77
7:30 pm - After eating a lot of random snacks (I'm hungry but not in the mood for an actual dinner apparently), I wander back over to the computer to do some more work. While online, I order the dress I found last night, as there's only 1 left in that size. I do a lot of ordering online and returning. If this one fits, I'll decide between this and the one I have left at home and return the loser. If not, then I'll re-evaluate if I want to order yet another option. $270.01
8:30 pm – Shower, skincare, bed. I’m so tired I can barely think. Although I did manage to not text the ex. Small victories.
Daily Total - $309.43. Better but still too much!
Day Three (Wednesday)
8:55 am – I am sooo not feeling it today. Since I’m working remotely, I only have to drag myself out of bed, take meds, and put the kettle up, then sit right down at the computer. I have about an hour before my first call, and spend it going through emails that came in overnight, and checking my personal accounts. My expense reimbursement came in as expected, and I send that to my main credit card. I like to chip away at the balance throughout the month, this helps me make sure I can pay it in full every month. Plus most of the items I am being reimbursed for were put on this card. I also review a quote from my cabinet guy – a little higher than originally estimated (but that was a ballpark that was missing a few cabinets plus I added a few upgrades). I send him back a few questions, and update my spreadsheet like the lunatic that I am. I am going to try to make today a no spend day…..we’ll see how that works.
12:00 pm – In between meetings, I make some phone calls and send some emails regarding the reno. I set up appointments for Friday, get denied for multiple extra keys for my building’s front door (don’t get why but I am going to choose my battles. This ain’t one of them. Apparently no one is supposed to have extra keys?! But they’re making an exception to this to give me one extra. Kind of ridiculous but whatever.) I also putter around my apartment, straightening up a little (it’s usually very tidy but has gotten messy lately with paperwork and stuff), in preparation for packing it up. I eat breakfast (egg scramble that was meal prepped over the weekend), and run out to move my car for street cleaning.
3:30 pm – Finish up my last call of the day, and re-organize my to do list. I got a lot of nagging things off my plate today. I like to save these for when I work from home, I can multi task without people trying to talk to me lol. I also drink some water because I remember I am a human and need to hydrate. Been bad about that this week. I get an email confirming that the referral bonus for someone I recommended that was hired will be sent to payroll for processing (her 90 day probation is completed today). I should see it in my 9/30 check. The bonus is $2,000. Assuming I’ll see around $1,200 of that after taxes. This will all go straight to the reno.
5:30 pm – Sign off for the day. I found an ad on Craigslist for a dresser I want for the spare room in my new place. The seller is willing to deliver it (score!). She’s asking $30, but I give her $45, she drove about 20 miles here in rush hour AND helped me get it into my apartment. So much for a no spend day, but this saves me about $250 from buying it new AND I don’t have to assemble it. $45
7:30 pm – I do the dishes, take out the trash, have dinner (Freshly Sicilian Chicken Parm with Broccoli from the freezer), set up my travel mug for tomorrow, lay out my clothing, and settle in for more Supernatural. Hoping to be in bed super early again tonight, but I have plans to chat with my old roommate, M, and we always end up on the phone for 2 hours.
10:15 pm – Off the phone with M. It was great to catch up (we haven’t talked in a few months), but now this girl is TIRED. Shower, skincare, brush teeth, another episode of Supernatural, and bedtime.
Daily Total - $45
Day Four (Thursday)
8:50 am - Alarm goes off and I say no thank you. But I get up anyway. Put the water up, standard morning routine (meds, get dressed, pee, brush teeth). I check my email for a few minutes before heading out, and am in the office by 10:10. First call is at 10:30 today. Gonna try for a no spend day again lol.
12:00 pm – Finally make my breakfast and fill my water bottle. Busy day of meetings, mostly with senior leadership. There are not enough snacks in this office to make it through the day.
6:15 pm – I’ve had enough and pack up to go home. I decide that today is a good day to use my Starbucks Rewards to get a freebie. I mobile order my standard, London Fog latte, and hop on the train. When I get off the train, I’m tempted to take a cab home, but resist so I can try to make it one day without spending any money! There’s a line for the bus, and I decide I could use the walk, so I walk home. It’s misting lightly at the beginning of the walk, and has moved to full on drizzling by the time I get home, so I’m glad to be inside. I don’t have anything on my to do list for the evening, so I’m looking forward to a night of (let’s be real) TV and pajamas. Dinner is the same Freshly meal as last night, I have a bunch of that kind on the freezer and I want to start using them up.
9:30 pm – In bed at 9, but I don’t actually turn off the light until 11:30. Working from home tomorrow, and then have errands to run, so I’ll take a shower then. Brush teeth, eye cream, lights out.
Daily Total - $0 WAHOO!
Day Five (Friday)
6:00 am – I was planning to be up earlier than usual to get online earlier so I could go offline earlier, but I wake up at 6 and can’t sleep anymore, so I decide to get my day started. I have this afternoon off, so I will work until noon. Overnight, I got an email that a payment for the latest standardized test I proctored came in. I log into my bank account and realize that I also got paid (I get paid on 15th & last day, but if that falls on a weekend, it’s the Friday before). I run through my budget spreadsheet, pay what’s due to be paid this check (I don’t pay bills when they’re due, I pay them when I get paid – usually the check prior, it’s all scheduled out at the start of the year when I set up my spreadsheet). I also log into my mom’s cable account to pay that using her saved information.
8:30 am – after 2 cups of tea, I make 2 soft boiled eggs and toast for breakfast. Afterward I do the dishes and hop in the shower. It’s been a quiet morning so far, but I do have a few calls scheduled, and I want to get all of my personal life admin done before them. One of them ends at noon, so I am hoping to sign off immediately afterward and get right out the door. I get an email from the gift card site I buy my Starbucks cards from, that there’s an additional 7% all cards today. Was hoping to make it a no spend day, but I’m tempted….I have until the end of the day to decide. I don’t NEED to reload the card yet so I may skip it. I have to get myself out of the mindset of spending money just because there’s a good deal on something. Literally as I finish typing that sentence, I decide to check Macy’s to see if the 3rd option dress (I loved the smaller size I got, it just didn’t fit) happens to be included in their sale that I just got an email about. Not only is it included, so it’s 30% off, but Ebates is back up to 6% for Macy’s. I order it in the next 2 sizes. What was I saying??? This will bring me to 4 dresses for the party, I will obviously return 3. I’ll get a TBD amount added to my Ebates account in a few days. $242.36
12:00 pm – Last call over, out of office message on, and I head out to the new apartment. I have to stop at my mom’s to pick up some Home Depot items that were delivered there, and then I have appointments with the internet company to install new service, a carpet company I want to get pricing from, and R to finalize our plan. I have a few friends coming by this afternoon to see the place as well.
2:30 pm – I decide to purchase carpet from the company that came today. Not sure if this counts as an expense for this week or not, but I’ll include it for shits and giggles. I am carpeting 902 square feet of space, and the total comes to $3,887.41. This will be financed through them at 9.99% for 48 months. The payment will be $98.34, and I can pre-pay it. So much for not adding any debt for the reno… (although to be real, I knew this was likely. I wanted to finance it so that I can go back and see what I can pay off in full from the savings rather than committing to pay in cash). $3,887.41
4:00 pm – I meet with R to finalize his scope of work and to run some ideas by him. E, the friend who recommended him, also stops by to check the place out. My super comes by to meet R and chat, and gives me the one single extra key I can have. I’ll get billed for this in my maintenance, so nothing out of pocket now, but it’ll be $20.
7:00 pm – My cousin, T, comes over and we order dinner from a nearby bar. I pay. $33.47
8:30 pm – I head home to my real apartment, park my car, and walk up the stairs to see a LOT of packages waiting for me. One is the dress that I ordered on Tuesday (wow that was fast), and there are a few other packages that are apartment related that I ordered last week. Fun! It’s kinda like Christmas every day. There are two curtain rods from Target, and I do not like them AT.ALL. I’ll be returning those. I think they were like $18-$19 each. I go on Amazon and find comparably priced ones, plus I add one on for another room. I had ordered a rod for that room months ago, but I want them to all be consistent. I’ll find someone to give this one to, or I’ll try to return it. $60.02 (I hope I’m done spending money for the day!) I try on the dress quickly, and it might fit, but I can’t reach the back zipper, so it goes into the pile of dresses I need someone to help me with lol. $60.02
11:00 pm – After puttering around, and getting myself prepared for tomorrow (another busy day), I head towards bed. My body is trying to tell me that I’ve been awake too long, and I need to stop ignoring it.
Daily Total – $3,980.90 (I am literally nauseous. Even though I’ve been planning this for a while, and knew the money was going to be spent, spending in it these large chunks is so painful…)
Day Six (Saturday)
7:45 am – What? Whyyyyy…..I naturally wake up at this time but it’s actually ok, since I have a bunch to get done before I head out for the day’s errands and I won’t be staying at my apartment tonight. I’m puppy sitting!!!! Meds, pee, put the kettle up for my first cup of tea. While I’m waiting for the water to boil, I put bacon (that I defrosted the other day) into the oven to bake to meal prep for the upcoming week’s breakfasts.
10:00am – While I’m waiting for my breakfast to cook, I sit down at the computer, and check my work email (because I am a lunatic). I see a few things came in late last night that I’ll have to handle next week, so I add them to my to do list so as not to forget. I also put a few bathroom accessories into my Home Depot cart – a new shower curtain rod, a towel ring for the wall, the faucet, a new toilet paper roller thing for the wall holder, robe hooks for the back of the door, medicine cabinet. I initially intend to order, but get mad when I see that the price of the medicine cabinet has gone up by $75 in the few days since I chose it. I decide to wait until tomorrow night – I am returning a few things to Target that I’ll likely get a gift card for instead of a refund, so I’ll see if any of the things on the list are there. I have breakfast – 2 soft boiled eggs and toast, and do the dishes. I watch a few more episodes of Supernatural before heading out for the day.
12:00 pm – I make a travel mug of tea to take with me (I may have a problem), brush my teeth and load up the car with my laundry (I’ll do it at my mom’s house tomorrow), overnight bag, things I need to return, and a bag with some home décor items I am giving to a friend from elementary school. I’m heading back to the new apartment for an in home appointment with a Best Buy appliances specialist. They come to your house, measure, find out what you want and put together packages for you. It’s free so who am I to turn this down? I won’t buy appliances today, it’s a little too soon, but I want to see what’s what and then I can communicate with the guy as we move further into the process.
4:00 pm – Appliance guy called me at 3:45 to tell me that he had a family emergency and can’t make it today, but he’s very sorry and is going to give me sooooo many discounts. While I was waiting for him, I built out a package online. The level of appliances that I want is very well priced (and well under the budget I had estimated) once they’re bundled, so if he can cut me a deal on top of that, then all is forgiven. I pack up and leave, since that’s the only reason I came here today. I head to a nearby shopping center to do a return. There’s a Starbucks, so I mobile order a Venti London Fog latte, and pay using my pre-loaded card ($5.06).
5:30 pm – I get to my friend J’s house and let myself in the back door using the key she left for me. Her puppy is GORGEOUS but holycrap so much energy. I’m not really a dog person, I like the more laid back chill of cats, but this is fun. For the short period that it will be J I order some dinner – ravioli vodka, mozzarella sticks and tiramisu - $29.52
10:30pm – Puppy and I have been hanging all night but now it’s time for bed. Saturdays are wild, y’all. Change, pee, brush teeth, collapse into J’s guest room.
Daily Total – $29.52
Day Seven (Sunday)
8:00 am – I wake up and get to clean up puppy poop. She’s still new to the housebreaking thing. No matter how often I take her outside, she doesn’t seem to get that that’s where she’s supposed to pee/poop. She’s so cute and just a baby….so it’s hard to get upset with her. J has no tea in her house, nor does she appear to have a tea kettle. This is like CODE RED.
9:30 am – I finish packing my stuff up, put poor puppy back into crate, and head out. On my way, I stop at McDonald’s to get myself some breakfast. And some tea. I also buy my mother some food, and order a meal so I can have a second cup of tea lol. Then I head over to my mom’s house. $14.65
1:00 pm – While my laundry is going, I run out to drop off the décor items at my friend’s, and go to Target. I return the ugly curtain rods from the other day, and some other stuff I had. I then buy ginger beer for my sister, beef stock, half & half, grapes and a tension rod for the shower. The total comes to $39.97 (after some gift cards, and my mom or sister may give me some money towards this….not worried about it either way). I don’t like the tension rod all that much, but I can’t remember how much the fancy brand was. When I get back to my mom’s, I check and see that it’s cheaper *facepalm* so I’ll include it in my Home Depot order and return whichever one I don’t like. $39.97
6:00 pm – Laundry is done, we’ve eaten dinner (cavatelli with Bolognese which is delicious but it’s still a little too warm for it lol), and I head home. I unload the car, go park, chat with one of my neighbors for a few minutes, then head upstairs to get my Sunday evening list accomplished. Laundry gets put away, I find two sets of towels in my linen closet that can go into the donation bag, and I clean my purse out from the weekend debris.
8:30 pm – I place the Home Depot order I started yesterday. Glad I didn’t order then, because the medicine cabinet I chose is too big for the space. I order everything else in the cart, and put another medicine cabinet onto the “to be ordered and picked up at the store by R when he’s ready for it” list. Total comes to $166.54. I make a note to make a template of the different medicine cabinet sizes that I like to bring to the apartment this week for when I meet with R so I can choose one and be freaking done with it. $166.54
9:45 – Time for bed, I’m pooped. Shower, brush teeth, lay out clothes, tomorrow’s breakfast/snacks (some of the grapes I bought earlier) put in a bag, good night!
Daily Total – $221.16
Weekly Totals:
Clothing – $512.37
Food & Drink – $135.83
Gas – $32.00
Home/Renovation – $4,197.71
Transportation – $75.00
Miscellaneous (Target Trip) – $39.97
Grand Total - $5,592.17
Reflections: Holy Jesus. I knew this was going to be a weird week but DAYUM. If I remove the clothing (dresses) and stuff I bought for the renovation out, I’m at $882, which is still high for the week. Another good chunk of that will be reimbursed (I didn’t include the expensed items specifically, but some of it is indirectly covered). I’ll say that food & drink is a little out of the ordinary as well – not the amount, but I didn’t do any significant grocery shopping, which is usually a big part of my food spending for the week. I happened to be able to eat out of my freezer most days that I was home, and I ordered food when I was at the apartment or at my friend’s house! It’ll be very interesting to do a follow-up after the reno is done and I am firmly in the new place!!!!
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Izumi3682 Archives

StarCraft is a deep, complicated war strategy game. Google’s AlphaStar AI crushed it. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 2 months ago
Mr Ignate--Everything you have stated, I have added to my schema of all this business. You have precisely educated me on the very points I needed to know. I'm grateful.
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Apple's dismissal of 200 self-driving car employees points to a shift in its AI strategy by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 2 months ago
Good thing too. "Siri" is abysmal compared to Google. I use "Siri" to get the current temperature and play my music on the mobile "she" is on. That's about it. If I really need to use voice recognition AI, I use Google.
I also bet that Apple just jumped in too late. It appears all the major automotive manufacturers are now in competition and that Apple is just too little too late.
Make us some magickal AI Apple. I know you can. And put it on my foldable mobile. God the future is gonna be awesome.
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Can artificial intelligence read X-rays? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 2 months ago
This one is easy for narrow AI. I prophesy that in less than 5 years diagnostic imagery devices will have narrow AI attached to instantly interpret the images.
So as an xray tech I have seen the following in less than 12 years. The end of film and chemicals. The xray machines that now instantly develop the xray and in a couple more years it will also instantly read the x-ray as well.
For perspective I was trained in the year 1981 to take and develop x-rays in a manner no different than a technician would in the year 1900. Film and manual processing in a darkroom. I was the last US army class to be taught manual processing as a matter of course. The next class onwards would be taught the use of automatic processing in the darkroom, only. Manual processing would be discarded from the curriculum. And I paid for that esoteric knowledge. I was sent TDY several times to military duty assignments with only manual processing cuz I was the only one that knew manual processing. :P
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Looks like the Deepmind Starcraft AI relied on superhuman speed after all by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 2 months ago
It doesn't matter. Handicapping the physical speed to match that of humans is just a way to make humans feel better and is completely irrelevant to what the true significance of this is.
The narrow AI can successfully play "StarCraft 2" against humans. Something it could not do as little as one year ago.
The trouble with our thinking about ARA (AI, robotics and automation) is that we keep comparing it to the human mind. That's a deadly dangerous misconception. The ARA we are developing is no more like the the human mind in efficiency and operation than the jet is like the bird or car is like the horse.
The ARA is going to blow us out of the water in about ten years if we don't learn how to, and I might add, very quickly, merge computing with the human mind. Even then humans with that kind of intellect will certainly no longer be business as usual.
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Supersonic 5G Wireless Could Kill The Cloud by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 2 months ago
I saw a quote concerning 5G once. Alas I can't find it again, but it said--
The difference between 4G and 5G is the speed difference between a very fast horse and a slow jet.
I'm not smart enough to think of things like that, so you can accept that somebody besides me made that quote. Anyway 5G is going to enable our future to unfold exactly the way our wildest imaginations suspect. VR, the IoT, robotics, computing access and the infrastructure to make possible a world of E-SDVs, nay, E-SFVs. You just watch the evolution of the electric self-flying vehicle over the next ten years.
And of the course the multiplier for ARA (AI, robotics and automation) in general.
As an aside. I saw that the narrow AI "AlphaStar" beat humans 9 games out of ten in StarCraft 2. Have we pitted our best human minds against the AI yet? One year ago, this AI could not beat the easiest tutorial AI setting. In addition in the competition against the humans, the AI was limited in reaction times and key pressing speed to the upper average of human capability. So in effect it had to "reason" out the game to beat the humans.
(Edit: Maybe not. But it doesn't matter.)
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/aknks2/looks_like_the_deepmind_starcraft_ai_relied_on/ef68kzy/
I think that handicap is to make humans feel better. The reality is that the AI could probably beat humans nearly instantly with its native speed and processing. Something we better bear in mind time going forward.
Here are some observations I made about a year ago about how the StarCraft 2 AI was doing. Remember this was just one year ago.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/aj0ft9/blizzard_will_show_off_googles_deepmind_ai_in/eerqaxn/
So my point in all of this is. The technological singularity is on track. In fact I would like to go out on a limb and state it will more likely occur around 2030-35 timeframe rather than Kurzweil's predicted 2045. That just simply seems too long based on our progress now.
The bar is raised and beaten every couple of months now in everything that computing and AI touch now. 2019 and 2020 will likely start seeing things that were physically impossible in the year 2016. Magickal things to our human perception...
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StarCraft is a deep, complicated war strategy game. Google’s AlphaStar AI crushed it. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 2 months ago
Isn't forcing the narrow AI to be required to generalize one of the goals of this kind of training? Oftentimes I think people, even very smart people that work with AI, often conflate generalization with consciousness or self-awareness or god forbid, emotional (fear) response. If the AI in this game can move armies, mine and manage resources, that seems a step towards generalization.
Still in the time span this has been going on, it is absolutely stunning to me the progress that has been made. I followed this closely when it first began. Initially the AI could not beat the game on tutorial mode wherein it plays against a simplistic AI meant to teach humans the basics of the game...
You might get a kick out of my early look at this AI's progress. Then again you, like me, might also be alarmed at the implications of what is taking place now.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/aj0ft9/blizzard_will_show_off_googles_deepmind_ai_in/eerqaxn/
My question is, how long until an AI that can drill a hole in a wall, be capable of preparing the ingredients and baking a cake if told to do that next.
I kinda wondered about that kind of generalization once if you are interested. To the best of my knowledge, this ability is entirely restricted to biology so far.
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/9786um/but_whats_my_motivation_artificial_general/
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People think and behave differently in virtual reality than they do in real life by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 2 months ago
Any time that people are afforded unbreakable anonymity online it changes their behavior. As far as how they think, they likely have always thought that way, but were repressed by the social mores of society when you are easily identified.
Like absolute power does not corrupt, but reveals, so to does the anonymity of the online and very soon now the virtual world.
When you see someone acting like a jerk or monster in a VR (to include "Second Life--which is a highly developed virtual 2D world) world, that is how they are in RL too, but they are forced to be circumspect in RL.
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Earth's oldest rock was found by Apollo 14 astronauts -- on the moon by izumi3682 in EverythingScience


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
Isnt the moon itself sort of an example of the Earth's oldest rocks. When the Mars sized protoplanet impacted the developing Earth, the two protoplanets merged, but a fairly significant amount of extruded and mixed debris coalesced into the moon. That was about 4 billion years ago wasn't it?
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NATO: Russia's new missile lowers bar for the use of nuclear arms by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
I said this about Russia the other day. Nobody agreed with me. Oh well
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/9vacc9/russia_is_back_probably_big_time_and_they_want_a/
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The Problem Isn't Robots Taking Our Jobs. It's Oligarchs Taking Our Power by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
You hit the nail on the head!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
Here is added bonus--"Murder Drones"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA
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IBM's First Commercial Quantum Computer by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
The D-Wave, quantum annealing computer has been on the open market for nearly three years now. It appears that form of computing has some advantage over classical computing for specific optimization problems. Google, NASA, Goldman-Sachs, Lockheed Martin and Los Alamos National Laboratory, among others, have one. Plus they get continuous upgrades as well.
Google is using that specific optimization problem solving to develop improved machine learning...
This early IBM quantum computer appears to be a logic gate quantum computer and could conceivably be useful for expanded applications. But this kind of "quantum supremacy" has not yet been demonstrated. If it is successfully demonstrated it will be at the top of the headlines. I give it one or two more years.
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The Problem Isn't Robots Taking Our Jobs. It's Oligarchs Taking Our Power by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 2 months ago
tourism will have to be mostly virtual
Wow! Just wait until you see what VR is gonna offer. It's gonna be crazy awesome!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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The Problem Isn't Robots Taking Our Jobs. It's Oligarchs Taking Our Power by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 2 months ago
Here is an interesting conversation from the other day about that. I don't see how we can tease out the ARA from the desire to create wealth. What we really need to do is remove the need to create wealth. But that would in my opinion require nearly perfect fusion energy whether man-made or solar exploited, plus enough humans displaced by ARA to necessitate a sea-change in affluence philosophy. And finally the ARA has to be able to simply take over most of human production endeavors.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/adyn5z/when_it_comes_to_robots_taking_jobs_are_we_asking/edmunrs/?context=3
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The Problem Isn't Robots Taking Our Jobs. It's Oligarchs Taking Our Power by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 34 points 2 months ago
Yeah, a post-scarcity society. But a lot of humans will have to fundamentally change the way that they think. And if they don't, I don't see getting around upheaval. And the TL;DR for that is the 99% lose and the 1% win.
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The Problem Isn't Robots Taking Our Jobs. It's Oligarchs Taking Our Power by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 12 points 2 months ago
the lack of commensurate wealth distribution is.
What is the point of wealth distribution if a medium of exchange no longer has any significance or even meaning? This is why it is so important that we begin to quickly explore the concept of "post-scarcity". Even such interim measures as negative income tax or UBI can't last for very long. Maybe for five years.
The way I see it, it's like "post-scarcity" or bust. You don't want "bust".
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The Problem Isn't Robots Taking Our Jobs. It's Oligarchs Taking Our Power by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 78 points 2 months ago
What happens to the creation of wealth when a critical percentage of US citizens are no longer employed due to the deployment of ARA (AI, robotics and automation). Won't people as a whole become upset and demand some kind of change?
This to me is the crux of what we are doing with the advances in ARA. Now after the year 2025, we might have to worry more about the ARA itself. But before 2025, we need to see what happens as the ARA begins to displace employment in earnest.
I can almost feel the ARA pressing hugely against the bars of societal restraint. And it is going to burst out.
I also like to compare the ARA to a tsunami. Fast and inexorably approaching, well visible now. Sound the sirens. Time is running out.
My tsunamis and beasts are what happens when the affluent get ahold of this ARA. I hope it results in immediate adoption of economic programs to effectively compensate wide swaths of humanity in the USA that can no longer find employ. And bear in mind that it is not enough to have food and adequate housing. If you can't meet your highest needs, there will be upheaval regardless.
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We may finally know what causes Alzheimer’s – and how to stop it by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 9 points 2 months ago
So, advanced gum disease (periodontal gingivitis). Is there a correlation between people that are going in for dementia testing and extant advanced gum disease?
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Why A.I. is a big fat lie by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
Anybody with a modicum of critical thinking capability understands that the "I" of "AI" is just an artifact of human perception. A "mis"-perception if you will. That in fact "AI" is nothing more than a level of computing speed, "big data" capacity and computing architecture that simply did not exist before the year 2015. That's the year I like to peg as the start of the "AI revolution", and by that I mean the logical successor to the "Industrial Revolution.
Anyway all this talk of AI is not in itself so inaccurate. Like I said it is a matter of human perception and human perception can be a "ground truth" if it become fairly universal. While the "AI" is not intelligent in any meaningful way, the computing capabilities are starting to fuzz our perception of what is computing like from the 1970s which was all databases and spreadsheets and super expensive ($250.00 easy) Texas Instrument calculators (that cost about 5 dollars today--in shrink wrap), to language translating and interpreting medical imagery today. Oh, and letting cars drive their ownselves around.
Yes it's just computing that allows a phone cam app to diagnose a potential skin melanoma better than an expert human dermatologist, but this new way of computing is starting to seem like something "different" from your daddy's 1970s computing. The effect of the perception is somewhat inchoate, difficult to define, but I think I speak for pretty much every single person except specialists and engineers working directly with the machine learning aspects of computing, that in fact, it looks like this stuff is starting to get crazy. Remember all the fears of automation from the 1970s? "Robots will take our jobs". While that seems a bit laughable in retrospect, it is in fact only incomplete. The production dedicated robotics like for cars and stuff--an extension of the industrial revolution, was physical only. This time the revolution is about replacing the human mind.
And that's a whole other can of worms.
You see, it almost doesn't matter if there is "I" in the "AI". The computing and robotics, the whole ball of wax I like to term the "ARA" (AI, robotics and automation) is now starting to become a phenomenon in itself. Level 5 autonomy vehicles and humanoid robots in public are probably less than 5 years out now. And that scares people. The "Industrial Revolution" had plenty of it's own good and bad, but it took about 158 years to unfold.
This new ARA revolution? Done by 2025. Not much time to generationally adapt, is there? And after the year 2025 we move into "technological singularity" territory. Technological "magick", both white and black, will be it's hallmarks.
So I have a list to put up against this article my ownself.
1.It doesn't matter if AI is a lie.
2.The AI may not kill you, but humans would be more than cheerfully glad to kill other humans and use the ARA to help.
3.Unsupervised machine learning is improving--by the month.
4.After the year 2025 the AI or perhaps even AGI might have enough brains to kill humans on it's own volition if it wanted to. Which is why I can't overstate how important it is that we get that computing capability into our own heads as fast as humanly possible. Our window for doing that has an expiration date. Of course humans will change too, but at least humans will still be around to change.
5.EI (emergent intelligence) is today physically impossible in much the same way that internal combustion engines were in the year 1700. Even though some of the underlying technology was already in place. EI would be a new sentience in the universe derived from humanity. I don't think its a good idea to go down that road.
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Yes, artificial intelligence can be racist - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says AI can be biased. She’s right. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 7 points 2 months ago
AI, so far, does not experience emotions. Emotions are what drive human stereotypes and prejudices. Whatever the AI does, it does from the input from humans. So the big question is how do we manage the input that humans code to use AI for whatever reason.
Particulars such as crime rates, education level and credit-worthiness are all influenced by human perceptions and emotions. Yes, you can state that these are all hard facts, but the reason for these facts probably is institutional biases from the humans themselves. Not just in the USA, this is a all over the world kind of problem.
In a given society such as the USA, humans are on varying levels of socioeconomic success depending on the factors that enable or empower a given human to reach the 'needs' level of "self-actualization".
In the USA we have a lot of trouble with that. And it is because of our relatively recent checkered past. A good portion of it well within living memory. We can't undo the past, but we can try to do better going forward. These elements of crime and credit-worthiness are facts, but they derive from deeply unequal treatment of many USA ethnicities for more than a century now. And pretty much up until World War II itself, women.
I see the earliest signs that we might be emerging from our less enlightened past. So perhaps time going forward, the ARA (AI, robotics and automation) we use will become more reflective of the ground truth of society in such a way as to ensure that all humans, in the USA for example, are truly equal. The ever improving internet access to education and proper critical thinking will go a long way to that improvement. But we are not there yet. Because the internet can be a double edged sword and divide just as effectively. And these are societal problems, not AI problems.
Having said all that, and I fervently hope that our society can improve, I think it is too little too, too late. The ARA is going to overpower society in less than ten years now. If we can't resolve our financial inequality and opportunity, a terrifying future could be awaiting the bulk of humanity. Then of course after that ten years, the majority of the 99% won't be around to argue the point any longer.
I put it like this once in a thing I wrote about "the sordid subject of coin".
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
Man I hope we can successfully achieve "post-scarcity" because if we don't...
permalinksavecontextfull comments (26)editdelete
Boeing’s experimental autonomous aircraft completes its first test flight by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
Huh! I was just speculatin' about this earlier today!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/aj10r1/robotics_unmanned_traffic_management_utm_systems/eertqy7/
permalinksavecontextfull comments (1)editdelete
France to Deploy AI-Focused Supercomputer: Jean Zay - is slated to deliver a peak performance of 14 petaflops. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 2 months ago
In 2009 the peak supercomputer performance was around 26 petaflops. Now we are starting to see these 10-20 petaflop computers spreading everywhere. This is why everything, but especially the development of narrow AI/machine learning is speeding up. Plus nowadays computers are using AI architecture as part of the mix! A hell of a multiplier to computing anyways!
I see evidence that AI is beginning to become truly recursive, just as Ray Kurweil prophesied. But I think his timeline is off. It won't be 2045. It'll be closer to 2030 I bet.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (2)editdelete
Robotics: Unmanned Traffic Management (UTM) Systems Outlook by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
Watch carefully, read between the lines. You are seeing the birth of infrastructure to support the coming E-SFV. The "self flying vehicle. And yes, it is coming. I might go so far as to say it could disrupt E-SDVs in about ten years time. Three dimensional space is much easier for computing narrow (for now) AI to manage, than all the obstacles on the ground it has to negotiate now.
I have a funny feeling that an AI that can begin to generalize is closer than we think.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (1)editdelete
Blizzard will show off Google’s “Deepmind” AI in ‘StarCraft 2’ later this week by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 2 months ago
I wrote the following comment about one year ago. Looks like things are right on track. And that is a super scary thought.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/740gb6/5_myths_about_artificial_intelligence_ai_you_must/
Oh I wrote this too a while back. I am just fascinated by this "AI vs. 'StarCraft 2'" business, and maybe a bit worried about how rapidly our development of an AI that can generalize is going.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7l8wng/if_you_think_ai_is_terrifying_wait_until_it_has_a/drl76lo/
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An algorithm that mimics our tribal instincts could help AI learn to socialize by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 2 months ago
This does not seem like such a smart idea. The AI will form "cliques". Them cliques will not include humans.
Stop that and just focus on merging our minds with the computing power that makes AI possible in the first place.
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The $22 billion gamble: why some physicists aren’t excited about building a bigger particle collider - Particle accelerators have taught us so much about physics that the new one might have nothing to find. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 6 points 2 months ago
...and be completed around 2050.
By the year 2050 the world, in toto, will be a very different place. Humanity will be well into deriving into whatever our technologies today hint at. The ARA of course will have already achieved the technological singularity. I'm pretty confident it will be human friendly. It is highly likely that by the year 2050 that some form of integration of computing with the human mind will already exist. Meaning that in the year 2050 every single human on Earth will have far and away more knowledge of things like particle accelerators and physics than our top scientists today. Every single human on Earth will likely be starting to join our intelligence to focus it for reasons that already today are beyond our capability to imagine.
If you consider the world of 1919 and then compare that to the world of 1950, that gives you the barest hint of the awesome, and I'm using "awesome" in the sense it was used in the year 1895, changes that are coming moving from 2019 to the year 2050.
If you are a student of history you understand exactly what I mean when I describe the changes that will occur with ever increasing speed. You will understand that these changes are despite our initial reticence to accept, completely normal and natural in the scale and scope of human affairs.
I wrote this piece to better explain that. But I emphasize, totally normal and natural.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/
But even before 2030, it is clear that some kind of correction will have to occur with our economics and even the very concept of things or services requiring "value". By the year 2050 there will be full blown fusion power and I might add that it will be significantly improved from initial fusion that at the latest will be here in the year 2030. And that ARA, merged with humans will make a world that we would be hard pressed today to write a screenplay for. But we could have big trouble with humanity itself around 2025. We would need new ways of thinking. The alternative is what I have come to call a "culling". As horrific as you would imagine. And yes, humans have 'culled' each other all through history, but this would be meant to make the world a better place for the surviving humans and would be based on today's concept of affluence.
I wrote a thing about this too, if you are interested.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
I am willing to bet that by the year 2050 that we have new physics that may render moot any further need for such things as physical particle accelerators. Our emerging, but primitive 'hive mind' capability to simulate, alone...
And you know, if you think my prophesies for the year 2050 are crazy. Just wait until you see what 50 years after 2050 looks like. No more screenplays are possible. It is literally beyond an "event horizon", beyond which we cannot model with our current minds.
In the year 2050, I will have been alive on Earth for 90 years. Barring that societal upheaval business I was talking about, I will be here for the year 2050. But I doubt I will be me today. I will remember me today with crystal clarity. Do you believe that our minds will degenerate due to aging after the year 2030?
All of this in about 100 years. A drop in the ocean of human time. Compare all of human recorded history from about 6,000 years ago to this next 100 years.
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